Benefit from the September India tender, in the past two weeks, the domestic urea port in order to increase steadily, the export situation is further clarified. From the outside the news last week, the international urea market are also looking for a good support, and preliminarily stabilized. The possibility and the latter still tense and tight supply of natural gas. Thus can judge, at least the recovery of urea season tariff in China before November, the export situation is still good. Of course, there are some people in the industry over the years from India bidding time and guess the purchase quantity before the end of 2014 there will be two tender, and expected to bargaining is still up in space, but also a realistic problem in front of us: one is the game of bonded area and season tariff, port two is a large inventory has been ahead of schedule or consumption of the favorable factors. So, focus on the current market, the operation of export should be based on "the sale when the sale" principle, no need to dwell too much on the late India bidding problem. After the National Day holiday, domestic urea prices temporarily stabilized. Due to the export of positive support, the majority of domestic near Hong Kong enterprises received export orders. Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other places in large urea plant during the National Day in Hong Kong, according to the understanding, the current price in Hong Kong can still be maintained at 1640-1660 yuan / ton, pushing down the domestic ex factory price, may be in the 1590-1620 yuan / ton a short-term price support. However, the personage inside course of study for urea winter storage and later market more wait-and-see attitude, which led directly to the domestic market appears weak even unsalable condition. Although the national day long vacation before also has a part of urea plant has slight price cut or Anxiang suction single measures, but have little effect. According to this understanding, the majority of agricultural means of production company for urea operation is more with mining pin, inventory is always remain low or empty. This just shows that the industry for the post of urea market lack of confidence. Recently, chemical fertilizer if VAT recovery also became a hot topic in the industry gossip. Cause source in late July a "on the restoration of the fertilizer value added tax" of the draft, also held in Beijing about the recovery of fertilizer VAT solicit opinions. The Ministry of finance related and the General Administration of customs and the State Administration of Taxation responsible person and from the domestic chemical fertilizer industry association, nitrogenous fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer, compound fertilizer and other enterprises have representatives to the meeting. After this time the director department did not disclose whether the new policy will be introduced before the end of the year, only said "it was just a question of time fertilizer recovery of value-added tax levy". If according to "has been added two cancel (direct subsidies for farmers, the lifting of price, the cancellation of the preferential policy of the reform target of view,) the first two steps have been finished, the restoration of a fertilizer VAT is logical. Another part of the industry that the cancellation of preferential policies will bring cost pressure to the enterprise, help to eliminate backward production capacity. In this way, not only can ease the overcapacity situation, also can bring opportunities for the current downturn in the market. But from an objective point of view, the undisputed reality problem and eliminate backward production capacity process is too slow, the industry has long been the dilemma is. As the saying goes "a body not illness". Moreover, in the long run, for the lack of urea enterprises profits, costs will inevitably lead to urea price increases, finally pay up or terminal farmers. To sum up, not only from domestic weak downstream judgment on the risk of the excess supply is also affected by the policy, many uncertain factors, temporarily not to be optimistic about. Exports are homeopathic walk, orders increased steadily, to some extent alleviate the short-term domestic pressure, but this is not a long-term positive. With the export window period near the end, before the end of the month there are still further the transaction space, FOB under international market support, or will remain at 290 U.S. dollars / tons. From this point of view, although the domestic situation will not be good, but the price of exports in hot situation still to see the stability.