For nearly a month, the urea export advantage is recognized in the last India tender, then appeared manufacturer of large-scale scene set in Hong kong. But the domestic urea market by its good support, domestic price is steady. But because the risk is expected to coincide with the agricultural off-season and industry, most of the domestic market temporarily in price virtual high and there is no price city situation. At this time, most manufacturers with pre orders in Hong Kong, there is no inventory pressure. With the low tariff period near the end, traders take goods is changing from the way manufacturers ordering into purchasing port spot. It is not difficult to see that traders on the risk judgment, but the reason is still further up, I'm afraid is a rumor originated in India at the end of the tender. It is understood that, under the procurement requirements, India intends to disclose in the late 10 launch urea bidding, but no specific time. If from the export situation in mid September after the game, FOB undertake down can still look for good support, but I in low tariff period lasts only until the end of the month, the cycle of operation is limited. So India a new round of bidding in the maintenance of urea in Hong Kong and heat is not decreased at the same time more will lead to the attention of industry port spot. Talking about the export to domestic urea market support, is really remarkable, at 1660 yuan / ton price in Hong Kong has also become a domestic manufacturers offer "wind vane". Of course, in the face of the most manufacturers now empty high price, the domestic situation is not optimistic in light storage. The industry generally bearish outlook, especially considering the November urea export recovery (15%+40) yuan / ton season tariff, set in Hong Kong or to export new single still can provide support for the market. A simple calculation, if the current China US $288-292 / ton FOB price projections, the factory can be combined to 1560-1590 yuan / ton, while in the recovery after the season tariff, the ex factory price of the corresponding offshore becomes 330-335 dollars / ton, so the price is obviously not with export advantage. In contrast, the Black Sea (Eugene) and the Baltic 312-320 dollars / ton price is more likely to become in November the international mainstream market price. In the season of export tariff calculation, 312 U.S. dollars / ton FOB corresponding domestic ex factory price of only 1450-1470 yuan / ton. It is no wonder that many industry speculation later domestic ex factory price will drop to 1450 yuan / ton. Of course, the above inference is established without the goods in the bonded zone or bonded case of a small amount of. The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on October 9th issued a "notice on carrying out the coal resources tax reform". The clear since December 1, 2014, adjust the coal resources tax nationwide collection methods, from the amount of Taxation instead of ad valorem tax rate range of 2% to 10%. Due to the coal resource tax adjustment related to the urea coal costs, while the cost is just the important reference factors of urea prices bottom line off-season, so get the attention. Ad valorem, even by 2% tax rate calculation, the coal enterprises is also increasing the tax burden. In this way, after the adjustment of resource tax or will support domestic coal prices upward. In summary, the short-term urea export situation to cover port traders based operation, port deposit has changed hands. As for the free trade zone, because the industry maintain a wait-and-see attitude of urea in 2015 tariff, the market also unceasingly appears similar to the "uniform throughout the year tariff", "policy to encourage export" rumors, so did not see the scale of the bonded operation. In fact, in the afternoon the lack of positive support, industry forecasts urea ex factory price is expected to fall to 1450 yuan / ton, even by season tariff cost-effective, export FOB also can accept 310 dollars / ton, which is unchanged from the current mainstream international urea price. The author is expected at the end of 10 to early November, domestic urea prices show a downward trend, Shandong, Hebei factory pricing or will drop to 1500 yuan / ton and the existence of Anxiang sales situation. In mid November the bottom according to the policy implementation, market or rebound momentum.