In 2012 our country agricultural fertilizer consumption amounted to 58390000 tons, accounting for about 1/3 of the total world fertilizer, is the world's largest fertilizer consumer. At the same time, the domestic chemical fertilizer market also exist a lot of problems, such as excess capacity, frequent price fluctuations, fluctuation range is large, to a certain extent, affected the development of fertilizer industry. Two years ago, the market downturn affected by the environment, the first half of this year the situation is not just as one wishes on fertilizer sales, manufacturers are eager to transformation, from the domestic production situation, the imbalance of supply and demand will maintain 2-3 years. The main chemical fertilizer production in 2015 will remain stable; the prices of major varieties of fertilizer will be picked up slightly. 2014: adequate market supply, prices fall N: adequate supply, the factory, the retail price of double According to the nitrogen fertilizer industry association data, 2014 1-9 month, nitrogen fertilizer output of 33610000 tons, compared to 2013 1-9 month 33530000 tons an increase of 70000 tons, production remained stable. 1-9 month national n the total supply of 34630000 tons, an adequate supply of. 1-9 month, planting fertilizer consumption decreased compared to the same period last year have. In the case of continuous adjustment of planting structure, according to the past 5 years China's planting industry structure change trend extrapolation, is expected in 2014 planting fertilizer consumption was 34100000 tons, 280000 tons less than the 2013. According to the National Agricultural Center household survey, 1-9 month nitrogen fertilizer consumption accounted for 79%, is expected to planting nitrogen fertilizer consumption is about 26940000 tons, compared with the same period in 2013 to reduce the amount of 260000 tons. From the price point of view, 1-9 month national fertilizer ex factory price dropped significantly. Urea average ex factory price of 1590 yuan / ton, fell 430 yuan / ton. At the same time, urea retail price from January 2053 yuan / tons, in June dropped to 1878 yuan / ton, down 344 yuan / ton higher than the same period last year, the past few years are declining trend. P: the decline in output, the factory, the retail price of double In 2014 1-9 month, phosphate fertilizer output of 13150000 tons, 240000 tons year-on-year reduction. 1-9 month of phosphate fertilizer for the supply of 15140000 tons, the supply is far greater than the demand. According to the National Agricultural Center household survey results predict that the 1-9 month of planting fertilizer consumption is about 7140000 tons, 2.5% year-on-year decline. From the price point of view, 1-9 month phosphate fertilizer prices begin to fall. In mid July, diammonium phosphate factory pricing 2400-2500 yuan / ton, fell 400 yuan / ton; 55% powdered ammonium phosphate factory price 1750-1800 yuan / ton, down 600 yuan / ton than the same period last year. The retail price of diammonium phosphate from January 3300 yuan / ton down to 3100 yuan / ton, the current stability in the 3150 yuan / tons. K: increased production, the factory and the decline in import prices Potash resources shortage in China, the uneven distribution of relative soil potassium deficiency. 1-9 month of potash fertilizer output of 4200000 tons, an increase of 10.2%, imports 3400000 tons, an increase of 4.3%. 1-9 month domestic potash fertilizer for the supply of 9700000 tons, increased supply, the output 4200000 tons, imported 3400000 tons, 2100000 tons over. According to the National Agricultural Center survey, 2014 1-9 month of planting of potassium fertilizer 5900000 tons, consumption of relatively stable. From the price point of view, potassium chloride ex factory price and import price drop: compared with the beginning of the year prices fell about 200 yuan / ton, down to about 400 yuan / ton. The retail price of imported potassium chloride has been maintained at 3250 yuan / ton, up slightly. The fourth quarter has a surplus of nitrogen phosphorus and potassium Expected 10-12 month of planting fertilizer demand of about 7160000 tons, enough 10-12 month about 15000000 tons of nitrogen supply, supply, considering the industrial demand and import and export factors, annual earnings capacity of 4490000 tons; 10-12 month of planting of phosphorus fertilizer 4800000 tons, 10-12 months of phosphate fertilizer supply of about 11150000 tons, consider the case of phosphorus export and annual surplus of 4850000 tons; 10-12 month potassium fertilizer demand of about 3300000 tons, is expected 10-12 month potash supply of 5000000 tons, 1700000 tons of surplus. The fourth quarter of the overall supply of adequate fertilizer. 2015: the prices of major varieties will be picked up slightly. The main chemical fertilizer production in 2015 will remain stable. Nitrogenous fertilizer production in between 4450-4520 million tons; phosphate fertilizer production in between 1650-1700 million tons; potassium yield between 500-550 million tons, to reduce dependence on imports. From the price point of view, preliminary judgment analysis: in 2015 the main varieties of fertilizer prices will rebound slightly. Urea ex factory price in the 1600-1750 yuan / ton, the retail price of 1850-2005 yuan / ton; diammonium phosphate ex factory price in the 2450-2550 yuan / ton, the retail price of 3000-3200 yuan / ton; import potassium chloride the retail price in the 3100-3250 yuan / ton; high concentration compound fertilizer in the domestic retail price of 2950-3100 yuan / ton. About the export situation: we determine nitrogen exports will further increase, is estimated at between 550-650 million tons; exports of phosphate fertilizer to maintain stability, about 3000000 tons; potash imports will increase slightly, about 400-420 million tons.