Fertilizer as important determinants of commodities, the price not only from its own supply and demand situation, but also by the balance effect of farmers (the most direct is a package price of agricultural products). In the past 10 years of data, fertilizer prices showed a strong positive correlation with crop prices. At present, the global crop prices basically to relatively low position, while the bottom of the process will continue, but the future probability to the larger, is expected to boost the global fertilizer prices rebound.

The fertilizer industry has experienced 4 years of sustained downturn, nitrogen phosphorus potassium to inventory results significantly, at the beginning of 15, the global fertilizer stocks are low. Domestic fertilizer market will usher in the spring of good, concentrated fertilizer use period, optimistic about the upward price, is expected to increase in 200 yuan / tons.

Urea: spring supply will be tense, the price is expected to exceed expectations uplink

14 years of urea output fell 2.9% annual reduction of 2120000 tons, while exports increased 5350000 tons, without considering the industry the case of demand growth, the current domestic resources volume fell 7500000 tons, equivalent to 14 of annual output 10.7%. If during the spring, urea exports continued to increase, domestic supplies will be in short supply, and agricultural rigid demand will not change much, the tension between supply and demand will promote the urea prices than expected uplink.

Business continuation of phosphate fertilizer

Maintain the early P prosperity view. The latest data show, Brazil phosphate fertilizer demand remained strong growth, India inventory at historic lows, American yield in decline. New domestic productivity slowed down obviously, strict environmental protection policy (especially the disposal of phosphogypsum) started the effect of small capacity, and the rapid export growth, operating rate increased gradually. At the same time pay attention to fertilizer prices of phosphate ores conduction.

Potassium global inventory reduction, operating rate is high

Due to strong demand, the 2014 North American fertilizer manufacturers sales year-on-year growth of 15% is expected to lead to the end of North American stock drops compared to the same period 44% than 5 years fell by an average of 37%. Affected by this, the expected global potash stock fell nearly 2000000 tons. The global super expected demand background, potash operating rate of strong performance, PotashCorp estimates that global production capacity utilization rate is as high as 90%. Consider the commencement, inventories and other factors, potash fertilizer prices will enter the ascending channel. (Xun Mei)