After the festival, the compound fertilizer market is not much better, the price slightly weaker, turnover has not improved. The next agricultural demand concentrated in the summer corn fertilizer, urea prices associated with the larger, urea prices become the focus of market attention.

The compound fertilizer market demand from the northeast margin and southern spring preparation fertilizer, regional focus, because the amount is small, not on the fertilizer market formed a strong support. The Central Plains region of the spring with the end of summer to prepare fertilizer fertilizer, no start, the market in the gap. Coupled with the weak market, enterprise advance orders, factory equipment operating rate rose slowly. Investigation shows that, in addition to individual orders of enterprises operating rate increase, Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei and other manufacturers operating rate remained at more than four percent, the previous period changed little.

The same dull and compound fertilizer price. At present, the mainstream of compound fertilizer market price last week did not change. 45% Shandong area of sulfur based compound fertilizer mainstream ex factory price 2200 ~ 2300 yuan (ton price, the same below), the Jiangsu area 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer from 1750 to 1800 yuan, the Hubei area 45% of sulfur based compound fertilizer from 2200 to 2250 yuan. Gao Danfei quoted last week, Shandong tower 40% chlorine based n the mainstream ex factory price 1840 ~ 1940 yuan, Hubei tower 40% chlorine based nitrogen ranged from 1760 to 1850 yuan, Anhui area 40% chlorine based nitrogenous fertilizer is 1710 to 1760 yuan.

Exacerbate the negative effects this week from the raw materials. Mainly urea prices continue to weaken, before and after April 9th, the North China market down 50 yuan, a negative impact on market sentiment. The effects of long-term demand, potash and phosphate prices also appear weak.

There are similarities between the situation with the same period last year. In early April 2014, the price of raw materials market weakness, the summer sales season of high nitrogen compound fertilizer prices fell. The industry is worried that if this recommit the same error.

From the analysis of the influencing factors:

First look at the ingredients. Compared to the same period last year the price of raw materials, ammonium phosphate and potash gaps, 55% powder ammonium mainstream factory price 2000 ~ 2050 yuan, 60% potassium chloride mainstream ex factory price of 2100 yuan. Urea price disparity between the largest. Over the same period last year the price of urea was at the bottom of the mainstream ex factory price of 1400 yuan, down to the bottom of. The difference this year is the beginning of urea prices rebound, after the shock down, is at the stage of. If the market continues to receive 1400 yuan line last year, so this year oscillation space urea market basically clear. Further speaking, the urea 1580 yuan factory price is still a rational range of market confidence, support or to the same period last year.

Second look at supply and demand. The total supply and demand of compound fertilizer is difficult to statistics, but according to the operating conditions can be judged in the one or two. According to the monitoring mechanism analysis, the first quarter of last year, the compound fertilizer manufacturers operating rate will rise rapidly from the Spring Festival, maintaining overall level in more than 50%, until the late April operating rate fell. Since the beginning of this year, manufacturers operating rate has remained low, slow rebound after the Spring Festival, now the overall operating rate is only about four into. Recently, there are reports that the stock market is low in Shandong, Hubei and other local sources of supply, which is a microcosm of the market this year inventory level is low. Although not quantified, but at least can judge from the macro demand this year is expected to be better than last year.

Finally look at the price. The content of compound fertilizer price with the same period last year quite. Combining with the factors of supply and demand of raw material and compound fertilizer, the cost of support is better than the same period last year.

Based on the above analysis can be drawn, compound fertilizer in the summer the possibility of price level stability more manufacturers, equipment operating rate also have bigger promotion space, it is reasonable to expect a steady to good sales season.