April 30, India launched urea IPL again without quantitative tender closing on May 9, sailing until June 29. This is the second tender STC April 10, held in India this year, the third round of bidding. The STC tender, in the case of absence of China, the procurement of only 330,000 tons.

I remember last year on June 18 STC India launched the tender, CIF $ 266 / ton, only to procurement to 320,000 tons, the latter can only continue to improve India's bid price, but also continue to promote the rise in global urea prices, to Last October the tender CIF ultimately achieve $ 308 / ton, or more than 40 US dollars / ton. The story happened again: The tender is still the owner of STC, the winning amount is still more than three hundred thousand tons, which is a new round of global mean rise in the price of urea? STC is not Chinese urea export lucky bird? I think it must be that the Indians entered the same river twice.

This year's domestic urea supply and demand situation is more optimistic: this year 1--3 months, the National Bureau of Statistics data show that domestic urea production 17.63 million tons, down 80,000 tons more than last year; import and export data, export volume of 4.43 million tons more than last year an increase of 24.7 million tons, domestic apparent consumption fell 2.55 million tons compared with last year. Taking into account the decline in exports in April last year, but the situation is basically the same yield, in the case of flat domestic consumption, to the end of April, the domestic supply than the same period last year more than 1.8 million tons. Last May 20 domestic urea prices began to bottom, Based on projections, the most pessimistic forecasts, the domestic urea prices will rebound bottoming in mid-May. Such supply and demand has been reflected in the Indian tender: If not tight domestic balance, according to China's national conditions and speculation, there would not be the case of China STC tender all absent, the case of breach of contract after winning MTPL does not appear.

Some people worry that India continues to keep the prices down this bid, I think not, for three reasons: First, the results show India in April bidding for the international supply of urea is not much; Second, India's two tender interval only 20 days on India procurement of urea is very urgent, it should be a reflection of its domestic stock emptiness; Third, the time to May, has approached the Indian fertilizer season, spring fertilizer tender again not enough time, so we have reason to judge India this tender the number of policies will take precedence, that the Indians must accept China's purchase price to be able to supply enough.

Recent domestic manufacturers prices fell, bearish seems to have found the reason: the early rise in urea prices is the price of speculation. A price cap on detained on speculation, they never dynamically to understand the domestic supply and demand, the domestic apparent consumption not analyze reasons for the decline, never change places with excess capacity to explain everything. I think the price rise is the fuse, just let the prices come earlier, more violent, because the cost is not determined by short-term price.

Domestic agriculture just need about to start, inventory empty, while India also to the need to purchase time, the two superimposed, I think that the domestic urea reached 1,800 yuan / ton ex-factory price can expect! Who benefits who should purchase either domestic dealers to India sedan chair, sedan chair or India to us, now is the domestic auto bidding race with India of the time!

China's urea market is recovering injured patients have become accustomed to the use of export this cane, even though doctors say you can without crutches, but patients still do not consciously produce dependence. I do not need previous forecast Chinese exports in the first half, and we do not believe, the fact that China has withstood the global prices of urea lowest stage of the test, India has withstood the test of the successful tender zero. Some people believe that we have to see, some people see to believe, some people saw not believe we lack most is perhaps self-confidence!

Finally, apply the founding ceremony of Chairman Mao as saying in summary: China's urea stood up!