Last week in India tender results are not clear, rigid domestic demand has not yet fully started, the price of urea has entered a consolidation phase, the market is once again faced with the choice of direction. And foreign situation, we believe that the domestic price of urea is about to enter the stage of accelerated rise.

Domestic urea situation is compared to last year, a substantial increase in exports, production was essentially flat, the domestic apparent consumption dropped more than 15%. Use of urea divided into two categories: agricultural and industrial needs demand. In national food price protection support, demand for urea in agriculture should be able to maintain the basic stability; although pressure on China to maintain growth of large, but a few months before the GDP growth rate remained at about 7%, indicating that demand for urea industry over the same period The possibility also fall to zero. No increase in the supply and consumption does not decline, falling apparent consumption only reduce social inventory, channel water, "drought" diminished capacity. Traditional Chinese in the first half of the season with urea concentrated in June and July, nitrogen fertilizer in recent years has played a role in load shifting, but completely replace urea fertilizer is impossible. This year's apparent consumption compared with the same period last year dropped by nearly 5 million tons, nearly a month of domestic production of urea in late May last year, prices began to rebound this year, the domestic urea prices rebounded to advance to the end of April, compared to the data analysis and market Trend amazing match! Rally point ahead indicates a huge gap, with the arrival of rigid demand, does not exclude the possibility of post-urea prices skyrocketing.

Undoubtedly become the focus of the international market price of urea current interest: International lower than domestic prices, export pressure. The author analyzes from the following perspective:

Although export pressure, but will maintain the growth momentum

After the March on export market to do an assessment: April's exports Express is expected to export 1 million tons of urea may be more than 1.3 million tons over last year's slight decline; export volume in May in India and Pakistan tender case, the export volume is expected to be substantially higher than last year's 500,000 tons; the export volume in June of last year, only 35 million tons this year must exceed this amount, that is to say before the end of June, China's urea exports will continue to maintain growth momentum Concerns about export unfounded.

International market panic disappears, urea prices accelerated

India's bid price on April 10 and April 30 of a difference of $ 32 / tonne, the price rose much faster than the domestic market, and the winning is very small, on the one hand that the international urea market has spent the most time to panic, and the other on the one hand that the international market supply is not sufficient, China does not export, international urea prices will rebound quickly. Thereby determining, international and domestic export prices rapidly approaching in the coming period of time, showing up with the same tendency to fall, so China is no longer a global price of urea Highlands, so as to promote the export of Chinese urea.

Interpretation of India

India, as a first urea importer, will no doubt become the focus of market attention, but I think there is misreading the market analysis.

Some analysts in India to restart naphtha urea plant will result in urea imports decreased more than 50 percent in India, but India's naphtha urea production line was discontinued in the second half of last year. Although the author of urea to India not too familiar with the situation, but speculation based on historical circumstances, imports about 7 million tons per year in India is based on naphtha imports all production lines operating under, that is because the pre naphtha urea production line Parking, India's urea imports this year will only increase, not decrease! In the oil price has rebounded 20% of cases, only to restart naphtha urea production line may not have the advantage because of the cost, but the security of supply worries! Know thyself, know yourself, the Indian tender and restart naphtha continuous production line actions demonstrated the sincerity of India is not a lack of tender, but trying to hide something between supply and demand!

Production capacity

International market some new capacity coming on stream, but much will not be forthcoming, mention the fear zai?

Comprehensive international and domestic situation, I believe that the accelerated rise of global urea is about to enter the stage, China will dominate the price increases!