May 1 more than a month ago, I made a bold prediction, urea prices will reach 1800 yuan / ton, the basic realization of this goal today. However, continued innovation of high urea power still exists, the power will come from three areas: Start the Northeast market, India honor the pre-tender and procurement of new international markets.

Power One: Northeast

Author year's biggest failure is the Northeast market to determine the error. According to the experience of previous years, it had predicted in early March, late March, the Northeast market launch will boost up the national urea prices. Unfortunately, the Northeast market until late April, and no anticipated climax of the author, a direct result of the country's urea early in the doldrums. Today, through successive price increases we have proven the author of urea tight balance of judgment, but I did not reflect on why the Northeast in late March after the country's urea prices become a driving force. And northeast exchange dealers, they reflect a new phenomenon Early this year: Huojin not Young. Demand, prices should rise; oversupply, prices should fall, is the law of value is the Northeast this year's urea market subverted? I was judging this case is similar to the critical point of ice and water, is a former Minato price spikes. Unfortunately, until the end of April, I still did not wait for the Northeast news of price increases. What has caused the conflict theory and practice of it? Only one possibility is that the Northeast took a similar pre-primary dealers in 2011 shorting: Northeast of urea fertilizer in late June, and some farmers began in March to buy urea, that the purchase and use of certain The time difference. By late April, the dealer receives a farmer urea money after the goods to supply, fertilizer supply commitments out of stock. As long as prices fell late, then the dealer takes up not only the farmers money, but also can make the difference down. When the international prices fell sharply, while the country is also one-sided bearish short undoubtedly encouraged this behavior, delayed delivery by way of ultimately led to the northeast Huojin not Young's situation. Recently, northeast of urea prices rose a lot, but the supply is still scarce, with dressing approaching, all the short sellers have to be faced due delivery pressure, I believe that the Northeast market will soon erupt to form a national that global urea The benchmark price, driving up overall prices.

Power II: India

India cash tender by the end of April. Last year, a lot of traders to short the Indian export tender in July to the beginning of August, under pressure while sailing near the massive cash purchase, directly stimulating the rise in the domestic price of urea. In April this year, India purchased the tender although only about 500,000 tons of Chinese sources, but according to the domestic port inventory and the arrival of inference, export traders and did not get enough supply. With the approaching delivery time, we will also be forced to recent purchases, thus driving up the domestic price of urea.

Power three: the international market

International markets continue to improve, exports can be expected. International prices to domestic prices and close rapidly, China's urea price disadvantage is gradually eliminated. With Pakistan Starr tender announced the upcoming tender India, domestic demand and agricultural rigid new round of global sourcing superimposed, could further push up global urea prices.

In summary, I believe that the price of urea is still upside.