Indian hunters intent tender reproduction
Dragon Boat Festival this year before the end of the fourth round of India's urea tender unsatisfactory, or can be said to be still lower than expected. STC India Company received the bid amount from 20 traders totaled 1,973,500 tons, in which the lowest CIF $ 315.9 / ton / ton calculated in accordance with China's sea freight to India $ 9, worthwhile only 307 FOB US dollars / ton, and this is only the interest of traders without prices. Domestic urea price set in Hong Kong which corresponds to about 1725 yuan / ton, set in Hong Kong last week, the price comparison 1760-1770 yuan / ton of view, there are indeed a lot of spread. In fact, although in mid-June, the domestic port will take the prices of goods transferred urea 1770 yuan / ton, set in Hong Kong are still too few new single, after all, compared with the domestic market 1720-1750 yuan / ton price, unit price of the apparent lack of consultation attract port force. Having said that, but after the holiday the tender India has reached a turnover of 80-90 million tonnes.
It is understood that in the current deal in which Iran accounted for 18-19 million and accounted for about 180 000 Arabia, the Black Sea region accounted for 120,000, and about 350,000 tons of urea supply remaining claims from China. Just before the bidding, Hong Kong stocks of urea less than 55 tons, and may be reluctant to sell this to the game of supply and foreign businessmen but there was the case of the port of price change hands. Since India announced the tender, home port will have a spot saved 1,720 yuan / ton selling price, CIF lowest bid is calculated to 1720 yuan / ton ports for export in the prices of goods and effectively allows traders per ton of urea operation to get at least $ 1 profit. However, the current round of bidding in India, most domestic manufacturers still hold pricing right to speak on the grounds, regarded as positive support and post-export FOB can guess China is higher than $ 317 / ton. Ironically, the cut-off price is still "business as usual" less than expected $ 10 / ton. This is also the author before the so-called: Indian tender attitude not clear, the timing of each plausible bid in return for "standard standard will drop" results. Some industry insiders assert that India's domestic supply is tight, procurement indeed just need support, I wanted to take advantage of the opportunity to weak Chinese demand for urea in July bargain hunters, but seems to be another "wisdom mistake." Foreign premature to lower prices led to no goods for Chinese ports, the domestic market has been delayed "southern flood northern drought," the climate, quotes temporarily high, although the deal has been under tremendous pressure, but in the case is not completely offset by positive support, but also before the arrival of low-cost point set in Hong Kong, foreign hunters somewhat premature at this time.
Urea domestic demand, offer "double" Bearish
With the domestic agricultural market wheeled around, the downstream market demand for urea is significantly lower than the industry had expected. Dealers generally felt the impact of structural changes brought about by fertilizer, high nitrogen occupy more and more of the market season, while the traditional amount of urea applied directly in agriculture greatly reduced. Remember the problem from the beginning it has been reflected in the lack of urea stock market, the industry will be regarded as the peak season for centralized procurement of urea prices rebounded sharply positive view. At least from the surface of the supply and demand market, urea prices have indeed rise. However, another problem has been more and more concern that urea go?
Urea fertilizer as overcapacity species, successive months, the downstream market little inventory, no inventory pressure urea plant, low-cost exports and because the boycott and not to be optimistic. Do most of the urea fertilizer production capacity has been digested industry? Dubious nitrogen fertilizer market will eventually see the "raid", which not only good explanation urea where the problem is to let the industry see and believe more than ever urea industry is changing urea fertilizer demand The supply and demand situation. Of course, there are some people in the industry believe that ultimately, that is a disguised form of high nitrogen urea production is consumed, not to oversupply of urea appear. Recently, however, continue to emerge and to popularize the new type of fertilizer also grab the market share, the market is likely to urea strong sales throughout the agricultural fertilizer before the end of the coming season, specifically urea manufacturers probably reflect the current selling pressure bar. Then urea tend to export, the price will be based on the international mainstream quotations reflect market conditions, and certainly lower than the current domestic offer. In fact, some manufacturers see the outlook of urea is expected to decline in value has already begun contemplating advance to cater to the export price set in Hong Kong, for the latter to digest their own capacity to do to prepare.
In summary, the Indian tender more appropriate timing, especially for late July of weak Chinese demand for urea supply were hunters game. But this recent experience domestic manufacturers lack passion set in Hong Kong and the urea market demand deficiency judgment operational errors. That offer higher deposit urea existing port, or with the current round of bidding missed India. However, with domestic manufacturers to further bearish domestic urea market outlook, willingness to export may also prompted India to launch the next round of bidding, which also indicates that the current price of urea has no positive support, the quotation of prices will start to decline.