According to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, "May Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Operation Report", and the third quarter is expected to post the fertilizer market prices in the second quarter will continue to run smoothly as the main line, a steady rise.
First, the added value growth accelerated
The chemical industry, pesticide, coating (pigment) and fertilizer manufacturing growth continues to lead. From January to May, pesticide manufacturing the main revenue growth of 8.7%, keeping the first; Tu (pigment) were prepared and fertilizer manufacturing growth of 7.5%, tied for second; the main basic chemical raw materials manufacturing revenues increased by 0.8% , has accelerated over the previous April.
Second, the production growth slowed
Fertilizer to maintain rapid growth. In May, the national fertilizer production (pure, the same below) 6.386 million tons, an increase of 6.4%. Among them, the urea production 2.864 million tons, up 3.9 percent; phosphate fertilizer production 1.633 million tons, an increase of 16.0%; potash production 629,000 tons, an increase of 8.6%; synthetic ammonia production of 4.74 million tons, down 2.1%. That same month, pesticide production (equivalent to 100%) 292,000 tons, an increase of 0.2%. Among them, the herbicide production 134,000 tons, a decline of 1.8%. Agricultural film production 165,000 tons, down 1.8%.
Third, investment continues to decline
The chemical industry, coating (pigment), fertilizer and specialty chemicals manufacturing to maintain a rapid growth rate, pesticides and rubber products continued to decline and so on. From January to May, Tu (Yen) materials and similar products manufacturing investment 37.77 billion yuan, an increase of 22.7%; fertilizer industry investment 52.48 billion yuan, an increase of 11.0%; specialty chemicals manufacturer invested 108.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6%. Pesticides and rubber products industry investment continued to decline, a decline of 12.1% and 8.1%. In addition, before May, basic chemical raw material manufacturing investment increased 7.0%, synthetic materials fell 4.0%.
Fourth, the export decline
Customs data show that in May, exports of 3.326 million tons of fertilizer (physical quantity, the same below), an increase of 108.8%; exports $ 1.05 billion, an increase of 139.6%; total exports of fertilizer 14.226 million tons, an increase of 70.5%; exports of 4.23 billion dollars, an increase of 73.5%.
Fifth, the demand slowdown
Fertilizer consumption overall fell to expand. From January to May, China's apparent consumption of fertilizer (pure, the same below) 26,307,000 tons, down 3.2%, a decline of 2.5 percentage points compared to expand 1 to April. Among them, urea apparent consumption of 10.99 million tons, down 3.0%; phosphorus apparent consumption of 6.246 million tons, down 1.3%; potash apparent consumption of 4.022 million tons, an increase of 8.4%; DAP (physical quantity) Apparent consumption of 5.816 million tons, down 5.0%.
Sixth, the fertilizer market continues to steadily rise
Statistics price index, May fertilizer manufacturing price index fell 0.3%, a decline from the previous month narrowed 1.5 percentage points; the cumulative decline of 2.9 percent, 0.6 percentage point rise from the previous April.
In May, more than 10 varieties of major fertilizer market price monitoring, the chain, rose varieties are over half. Overall, nitrogen rebound larger, phosphorus, potash and fertilizer have a slight concussion. Among them, the urea market price 1710 yuan / ton, up 6.9% year on year increase of 14.8%; the average price of DAP 2860 yuan / ton, down 3.7% year on year increase of 12.2%; the average price of MAP 2050 yuan / ton , down 1.4% year on year increase of 9.0%; the average price of domestic potassium chloride 2100 / ton, down 0.9% year on year decline of 0.9%; 45% of the average price of 2300 yuan compound fertilizer / ton, down 2.1% year on year or 3.6%.
International market, in May the average price of urea exports (fob, the same below) of $ 290.1 ​​/ ton, down 1.4% year on year decline of 5.3%; DAP exports averaged $ 465.7 / ton, up 0.6% year on year rose 10.6 percent; NPK export price $ 449.2 / ton, rose 59.9 percent, year on year decline of 17.3%. May potassium sulfate import price (CIF) of $ 565.9 / ton, down 0.7%, an increase of 3.6%.
Eight forecast
Fertilizer market maintained a steady running posture. According to the current fertilizer market trends as well as future changes in demand, and is expected to post third-quarter fertilizer market prices in the second quarter will continue to run smoothly as the main line, a steady rise.
The first half is expected to apparent consumption of about 32 million tons of fertilizer, a decline of about 2.5.