international urea are down, the market bearish sentiment again. But we still judge the recent urea there will be a decent rebound.
First explore the relationship between the international and domestic urea market. Market participants generally believe that the international urea prices, exports have lost support. But Reviewing the market, the domestic price of urea which time because the international market prices driven? No! From since March this year, the domestic urea price is always higher than international prices, the domestic market to support the international market, rather than the international market to support the domestic market. Premier Li Keqiang during the two sessions this year to answer questions from foreign reporters, said: China such a large volume economy, who can pull the Chinese economy? China is in the cart, rather than take the way to the car. Urea is the same: China such a large volume of urea in the international market is impossible to pull. Combining the last two months and preliminary data analysis does not appear in the case of emergencies, regardless of the price level, the monthly export volume of Chinese urea should be able to maintain the equilibrium level of 700 000 to 100 tons, it will not show the ups and downs Therefore determinants of domestic prices were not exported. I firmly believe that, in the latter part of the urea remains strong outside the weak situation of ups and downs this year, the international price of urea on the domestic minimal impact.
Moment, we lack most is the understanding of the domestic market, all eager to know how much domestic demand, the supply is how much, in order to determine whether the oversupply. However, domestic demand is constantly changing, the social stock could not statistics, who could get no convincing set of data, and finally an analysis of the market have become Mangrenmoxiang, which is the root cause of China's urea marketing difficult. Through accurate data to the launch of supply and demand method belongs deductive reasoning, although most convincing, but obviously does not work in China, and therefore only the second best by a large number of phenomena out the rules: This year is a tight balance of urea ups and downs with the needs of time-sensitive, regional use when up, down when not in use. So, the operation is simplified: you do not need to consider the trend of the international market of urea and other regions, each with fertilizer dealers are most familiar with their own time to market, according to the needs of their own time getting goods to market, even if did not get the lowest price, but it does not sell, it will not loss. Central Plains region and the Huaihe River in late July once dressing process, we believe the price of urea in these areas will still rise.
Another factor to note is the weather: the weather makes this season the focus is greatly reduced. This year a large rain south, large rice affected area, mid-season rice planting time span, late of the area or expand, which means that as long as the weather improved later, the demand for urea in the South or super previous years, the duration will be more long.
Comprehensive analysis, I think this year urea prices are not too bad at the end of October, according to local market needs time to operate is the best strategy.