Last weekend, Shandong, Anhui, Henan, urea supply was tight, prices continue to rise slightly. Since the vast majority of urea fertilizer for the production and management of enterprises, it is the last time this year, fertilizer, factories, businesses will inevitably seize the opportunity to clear all the stock, and therefore the consequences are not determined prices. In addition, the dressing of short duration, the price of the "accelerated track," is not long enough, so that the gains may be lower than the previous forecast author of 100 yuan / ton.
For each year of urea happy at the same price, I worry constantly growing: Every time the prices are highly consistent with the use of fertilizer, distribution companies as well as the light storage capability it? Channel urea reserve from last year began to show signs of a substantial decline, perhaps this year has reached the limit. Annual production of urea is focused consumer products, once the distribution companies do not reserve, then urea manufacturers how to spend the long off-season? Agricultural demand season and how to ensure? About to enter the off-season, the seriousness and urgency of the problem must pay close attention of.
Some people think that this distribution companies do not light storage, urea market performance was not bad. Notice, this year in the case of a large number of exports achieved last year reversed, and the case of the latter part of this year exported almost impossible: one in the case of oil prices fell sharply, almost no Chinese urea export price competitiveness. Simple example is last November to March this year, the export price of Russian natural gas in Ukraine is $ 338 / cubic meter, and the new contract price is $ 247 / cubic meter, gas-based urea raw material costs dropped to less than 920 yuan / ton. In China, even with the most advanced coal gasification technology, it has become the highest production costs of urea countries worldwide. Second, the global economic downturn, agricultural prices are low, demand is difficult to be effectively improved. Third, the domestic and external demand does not increase, but domestic and foreign production are increasing, which makes the declining share of domestic exports, it could lead to an additional 500 million tons of domestic supply, no doubt exacerbated by the excess. From the case in March of this year, China's urea export is always at 80 tons / month hovering around only about half last year's July exports, it can be said, expect a lot of the basic end export balance domestic supply of urea era.
Many of urea companies want to do differentiated products to achieve transformation, I believe the problem can not be resolved without reserve distribution companies.
Be prepared to take a look too far, I believe that the domestic urea production and management must make greater adjustments:
On the one hand properly treat export. The latter not large exports, will exacerbate domestic surplus, could not stabilize the domestic market, exports could not necessarily stable, will eventually result in a dual export and domestic markets collapse. Thus, to solve the domestic urea export surplus of choice. Blindly raise export prices is tantamount to suicide, in the export market for a willingness to fight, fight for more exports.
On the other hand we want to build a new relationship between the manufacturers. To ensure the basic interests of the circulation, to operate like business as urea fertilizer. This requires wisdom, innovation model, requires producers to pay a price.
If urea production companies can not make a change, then this upcoming season long, might feel unusually cold!