VAT is the complex of the autumn compound fertilizer market, the overall operation has been in advance, and by the cost increase, more than half of the enterprises have raised the offer, the price is more than 50-100 yuan / ton, so that the market is better to compound fertilizer. However, because of the advance of the start, recently rose after the new price clinch a deal a few, short visit the hike of practical significance and little.

Most companies take the opportunity to price increases, the cost is forced, followed by a boost to the winter storage market, hoping to promote the downstream positive stocking, making the winter storage progress smoothly, to master the leading.

Raw materials: since the value-added tax recovery, urea prices fall, because of weak market demand, has a long time the price is vulnerable to run, Shandong mainstream factory price has dropped to 1470-1500 yuan / ton; ammonium phosphate by VAT complex relative to the effect of urea ammonium is large, most companies will offer up 50 yuan / tons, in addition, the mainstream of Hubei area 64% diammonium factory price rose to 2750 yuan / ton, due to more orders, no inventory pressure, but the new single is not prosperous, so the short-term price should not have large fluctuations; potassium rise, rate of 300 yuan, the 62% K white border mainstream the price is 2260 yuan, also rushed to the port price of about 2450 yuan, but some large fertilizer companies sourcing of potash is adequate, available to early 10, and more recently some small plants is eager to promote the high price of raw materials procurement. Overall, although the raw material has a more obvious increase, but for the time being for the impact of compound fertilizer costs is not particularly large, especially in the doldrums of urea market confidence has been hit, the current situation in the lower reaches of the winter reserve fertilizer confidence is clearly insufficient, there are many dealers are more inclined to wait and see, waiting for the lowest price.

Demand: value added tax recovery, part of compound fertilizer enterprises eager to price increase, the magnitude of the raised part of the reach 100 yuan / tons, but it is understood, almost hike at the same time also introduced the greater intensity of preferential policies, so the actual price increase has a greatly diminished. Once brewing price hike of the fertilizer companies eventually died down and even individual enterprises price increase, due to the lower unacceptable and transferred back to the original offer, the final decision by their own digestion by the VAT increase the part of the cost. Can be seen in the price of the game, the victory is still in the market demand for temporary. Autumn fat like this, then the winter reserve price if you want to continue to rise on the more difficult. Moreover, in August 10th after the policy of VAT will be determined by the policy, many dealers launched the war in some areas, some dealers not only reserve the fall of wheat fat, even winter reserves of fat also have to buy, allegedly individual winter reserves of fat has reached about 8, although such a situation should be only a few, but also had to consider. Overall, because the demand is concentrated in the low price release, so the future of the future of winter storage market may be slow, especially if the compound fertilizer and then price increases. So, even if the latter compound fertilizer price rise, in fact might only be the false high price that.

Environment: the global commodity downturn, the economic downturn troubled fertilizer escape. Oil prices have since last year, the highest point of the fell 50%; thermal coal prices have fallen for three years, coal enterprises widespread losses; market price of grain, fruit and other agricultural products also step by step lower. This series of product price movements can be used as a reference to the environment of the fertilizer market, but itself has an indirect or direct relationship with the chemical fertilizer industry. Despite the overall rise in compound fertilizer prices this year, the spring and autumn wheat fertilizer prices are better than in previous years, but throughout the past few years, the improvement of the performance of a special, just by chance, and excess capacity, lack of construction has been the norm in the compound fertilizer market. So in the economic downturn, the compound fertilizer market should also be difficult to have a good performance.

In recent years, the enthusiasm of the dealer winter store has gradually faded, a market source said: many years of experience, and now the winter storage and the next year in the spring when the price of fertilizer is often not a big difference, so there is not much significance in advance of reserves." However, the current price of fertilizer is relatively low, while the lower warehouse is relatively empty, and government policies of preferential weakened significantly, on the level of fertilizer costs gradually upward. Comprehensive point of view, the compound fertilizer market is acceptable, the end of autumn to winter storage before the start, the price should be will follow the general principle of the decline in seasonal, but should not down sharply, tentatively expected start stored for the winter to spring sales, compound fertilizer prices rose only slightly, namely drop in filled before the shallow, difficult to uplink too obvious. So, the time is very important for the downstream reserve selection, for the time being not yet to the time of winter storage.