China is now in the whole fertilizer market is in a period of time, many of our chemical fertilizer products due to fertilizer VAT levy and greatly affected, from the whole compound fertilizer market situation, the current, the fall has been more than half, the early part of the end of the. After entering the September, the compound fertilizer stocking market relative to the crazy in August, it seems to enter a vacuum period, the new volume decreased, but until late September, the terminal market will usher in the peak season, when the stock market or have a short-term small climax. Raw materials, urea in September will continue to be weak operation; a stable; potash prices rose. At present, the major manufacturers are adjusting the price range in 50-100 yuan / ton range, but the whole fall market is concerned, may affect the winter storage pricing.
In previous years this time, amid stocking season, and in early September this year, stocking market into a brief period of neutral, because of the impact of tax reform, the part in September to prepare the goods in advance to August, and in August the normal progress of the delivery period of overlap, resulting in late August manufacturers shipments soared, many manufacturers shipments are record. Zhang Yi said: the VAT levy has been rumors, until August, and the 3% of the stock has not yet introduced, at that time, the amount of delivery has created a new record, in addition to the normal stocking volume in September, as well as the volume of 30% in August, in advance of the reserve, but also led to the relatively flat in early September."
Has a limited effect on the market
The transition period of inventory fertilizer by 3% tax rate of VAT notice issued, many manufacturers are relieved, although not to take a substantial price increases, but to maintain a very stable market is also good. "Autumn market as a whole stable, rate of 3% for manufacturers is very limited impact, if according to the tax rate of 13% complex syndrome, may lead to some wholesalers because of cost reasons give up part of the goods, but now it seems, in late September and opportunities, most likely there will be a second wave of cash centralized trading. At the same time, manufacturers will not be the 3% rate of the cost of direct transfer to the dealer head up, because if the manufacturers over the compression of the dealer's profits, then it may lead to the dealer to give up part of the market or to give up part of the sale. In this regard, manufacturers more in raw material costs, transportation costs, marketing costs up sharing the price, to minimize the impact of tax reform. " Zhang Yiru is saying.
Because the compound fertilizer is more than half, making the raw material lack of strong support, the current is relatively stable. Urea, Shandong mainstream has been less than 1500 yuan / ton, urea in the short term will continue to decline; ammonium new single only a handful of transactions, price adjustment is limited; potassium adjustment. "From the entire compound fertilizer market, the wholesale volume of goods is very adequate, but only to the end of the shop is not much, so manufacturers are now mostly clean up inventory or in accordance with the order to produce, rather than in August as a full steam production, the raw material market is not prosperous." For the trend of urea market outlook, Chang said: "the autumn urea market would have favorable factors, only until October in Northeast China to resume production, Hubei and Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi areas fertilizer demand, enterprise hike winter storage price, urea or fluctuations."
Summarize the fall's market, the reporter that application of "the reform of the tax system to manipulate the market" this sentence words to sum it up, because the 13% tax makes 8 months late delivery into a crazy situation, because the 3% tax makes the whole month of September represented in early transient stagnation, but also to manufacturers in late September a new round of stocking opportunity.
Reporters also learned that in view of the market for the fall, to ensure that the funds the normal circulation, manufacturers of cash policies have certain requirements, as in prices, dealers are required within a month cash settlement and reduce credit increased cash, make capital flow is more smooth.
In recent years, the dealer to the market operation more and more cautious, although it can be predicted that next year will have a good price support, but most dealers still plan to reduce inventory, planning to achieve zero inventory at the end of this year.