From the current market situation analysis, the price of urea remains low, market volume is not big, much to the Fed business, dealers continue to wait and see. From the aspects of supply and demand can predict urea market next spring: spring fertilizer will be an oversupply of the market, prices rise little space. The author suggests that the best short-term operation is appropriate, will minimize the risk of.
For urea market, 2015 annual prices which are inaccessible to pass the level: the domestic poor, more international trader in the Urea Export wanton suppression of prices. The trend of the industry since the beginning of the urea also expressed dissatisfaction. Of course, to the chagrin of the parties is not always the same: production enterprises suffer from although production cost reduced, but the market repeated game to profit or even a loss; circulation enterprises suffer from waiting to no avail, but always hunters to the waist; terminal retailers suffer from downstream farmers for grain purchase price and the lack of less purchase fertilizer enthusiasm. As of December, Shandong, Hebei and Henan provinces urea low-end ex factory price is only 1300 yuan (ton price, the same below) about Shanxi low-end ex factory price has fallen below the price, ex factory price of the most areas are in the historical low, the price back to 10 years ago.
From the supply side, domestic from mid October began to enter the off-season, until mid April next year, nearly half of the production time of the urea basically is required to supply the spring, a conservative estimate of the supply of urea is 38 million tons. From the demand side, the annual agricultural urea dosage at about 43 million tons, spring fertilizer accounted for about 40% of the annual amount is expected at around 17 million tons. Among them, the industrial demand is expected to consumption at about 700 million tons. Therefore, at the end of the spring after quantity balance at around 14 million tons, and last year during the same period, the balance amount in about 10 million tons. Such a large amount of surplus digestion, afraid back to the exit direction. In November 2014 to 2015 and March in and urea export volume reached 841 million tons, basically digested the surplus amount at the same time, it also makes the 2015 during the second half of the market there has been a wave of rising prices. At this stage of the global are faced with overcapacity situation, from the point of view of exports in recent years, the international trader on the urea prices weighed more and more serious, coupled with the cost of urea in China's competitiveness is limited, future export volume is difficult to occur again grew by leaps and bounds. Therefore, urea exports in the first half of next year are difficult to surpass in the first half of this year.
On the other hand, in recent years by the impact of overcapacity, urea market downturn, circulation suffer. Dealer operating mentality more cautious. In addition, dealers generally believe that the current prices of urea overcapacity, lack of support, often cash. The urea production enterprises subject to financial and inventory pressures, dare to raise prices. Urea exacerbate the vicious competition in the market, dealers increased business risk, operation enthusiasm urea circulation enterprises suffered a serious setback. In recent years, urea and other traditional fertilizer products increasingly marginalized, circulation enterprises mainly to focus on selling low risk and high return of compound fertilizer, such as varieties, circulation of the reservoir effect gradually weakened, urea sales more difficult.