2015 will pass, coming in the 2016, 2015 urea market review, this year we accept the railway freight increases, the price increases, value-added tax preferential policies canceled, natural gas price plan preferential weakened and unplanned natural gas prices down and a series of national policy level adjustment, and the inherent variability of India's 10 times particle size urea tendering and procurement global commodity transaction price downturn brought about the butterfly effect market operation. Urea market directly to each event is a reflection of the price changes, below China Chemical Network Analyst sun will be combined with various events and urea prices change to review this year's urea prices.
From the diagram that urea market in January in the agricultural off-season, prices stable, no greater volatility; however January 29, the national development and Reform Commission sent railway freight increases the "Circular", calculated down to 1, 000 kilometers probably rose 25.2 yuan, which leads to early February urea mainstream factory price compared to early January has 30-100 yuan (ton price, the same below) increase, and during the mid to late February, the mainstream of urea factory price are basically stable. Into 3 months early, we usher in North China, East China region, Winter Wheat Fertilizer season, the downstream demand is gradually increasing, in most areas of the mainstream factory price has raised slightly, along with the end of the fertilizer season, 3 in late March to mid April urea mainstream factory price 50-80 yuan fell. Since April 20, urea preferential electricity phased out, namely electricity prices in disguise increases, with favorable support for price increases, many urea factory offer strong rise 40-80 yuan.
Into may, part of the corn and rice planting area by Hefei have started, all over the mainstream factory price rise than enough power, or at 70-110 yuan and continued to late June, into the farm small off-season, reducing downstream demand, manufacturers take the goods is not smooth, urea prices start into the downlink channel, dropped greatly, the price decline 30-270 yuan, the downturn in the stock market has continued to early August, although during the Indian release urea procurement bidding, but because of the domestic manufacturers boycott low-priced exports, China's urea bid a limited number, this period of domestic urea prices boost is weak. Before the end of August urea prices relatively stable, but by 2015 August 10, the Ministry of finance, General Administration of customs and the State Administration of Taxation issued "on the on fertilizers restore to impose value added tax policy notice" provisions from 2015 September 1st, according to the unified tax rate of 13% of value-added tax, the original value added tax free income and tax refunds policy corresponding to stop execution; in view of this, the majority of downstream distributors for reasonable tax avoidance, in 8 large purchases of urea, in most parts of the mainstream factory price rose slightly, but from a practical point of view considering the input tax can be offset by different enterprises taxes constitute differences, urea production cost increase of only about in 0-30 yuan or so.
Entered in September, in most parts of the country began to enter the long agricultural off-season, short storage time is early, compound fertilizer factory began to shut down for maintenance, domestic total urea little demand, price of urea began to fall, when India took the opportunity to release a new round of urea procurement tender, although offshore price accounting for producers of the ex factory price is lower than the then domestic ex factory price, but manufacturers in order to reduce the pressure on the stock, had to be goods in Hong Kong, India benefits after the tender, during October they have released twice urea procurement bidding, FOB prices getting lower and lower, continue to test China's Urea Export Price, to the domestic market has obviously bad. Convention on November and December is stored for the winter season, dealers in succession by fertilizer, however this year over the same period urea prices continue to decline, higher winter storage of dealers wait-and-see sentiment, only a small amount of multiple prepare manure, market makes it difficult to concentrate on, although early November before and after the price wavelet rose, but the magnitude is very limited; during the period of November 18, national development and Reform Commission issued a notice decided since November 20, reduce non residents with the price of natural gas gate stations, the price of urea see November 21 Chinese nets fertilizer released "non residents use natural gas prices down on urea good or bad" analysis report, with urea prices dropping all the way. Due to lower prices of agricultural products in this year, farmers income poor, compound fertilizer enterprises receivables difficulties, the operating rate of rise slowly, the procurement of raw materials such as urea is not concentrated, so enter December urea market still vulnerable to run.
Recalling the past in order to better plan for the future, according to this year's various national policies and urea price changes, we know that every policy will influence urea market trend, but from the fundamental point of view, the policy layer facing the influence of the urea market is becoming more and more small, the publisher policy that will only affect urea prices in the short term while the long term trend is mainly determined by market supply and demand decision. Pace of adjustment of the industrial structure of urea has been exacerbated by the 2015 downturn in the stock market, is expected in 2016 will be a year of consolidation in the industry is more intense.