Mention of compound fertilizer market at present, seems to have two words long and positive no correlation, and the short-term is also. Stored for the winter market severe delay has been an indisputable fact, and throughout the compound fertilizer market, the status quo is not optimistic, then under the weight of the following three mountains, compound fertilizer why melancholy?
The first winter "still difficult to rise prices"
In early January, increase the amount of domestic corn market sales areas, stocking market sentiment caution leads to corn prices again downward trend. Although corn temporary storage acquisition progress still in support of northeast areas corn prices, but the market outlook for massive inventory digestion are pessimistic expectations, so corn prices uplink hard, down to find the bottom of the more likely. Under this background, farmers were reluctant to increase, although the early local pick up slightly in the beginning of the sale, but the amount is not large. The situation has not been effectively eased downstream dealer funding strand breaks, the reserve operation for the compound fertilizer is also very cautious, before the Spring Festival is not a lot of fertilizer plan.
Second agricultural productivity increasing to be weak
In recent years compound fertilizer market demand and the date are reduced, such as southern tea, cotton, fruits and vegetables and other economic crops prices fell, the local farmers abandon cultivation, 2015 production decreased significantly, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places even 50% decline, resulting in unmarketable annual fertilizer, grassroots inventory pressure, also under the guidance of national policy, much is energetically the transfer of land and development, returning farmland to forest, industrial development and residential houses built to make agricultural land area is decreasing, 2015 in North China and East China terminal fertilizer sales year-on-year reduced 20-30% did not. Anhui, a dealer to reflect this year in Shandong Dachang in the local ordering quantity only 3 over the same period last year. Shrinking demand, while the supply is growing, the rise of small businesses at the same time, large and medium enterprises production capacity is also amplified (see figure below). Competition among enterprises is becoming increasingly fierce, and the sales of brand products are facing the challenge.
Third raw material weakness cost down
Domestic urea prices fall, low end, mainstream Shandong rivers area price has dropped to about 1250-1270 yuan (ton price, the same below), the international urea prices continue to decline, the Baltic Sea small particles fell $7 to $217-222, China's small granular urea offshore reference price of $217-222; ammonium shipment is still weak lack of enthusiasm, the downstream procurement, the plant inventory continues to increase, the low-end prices continue to decline, Hubei area 55% powder factory acceptance of about 1850-1900, the transaction price has 1820 yuan in Sichuan; Saline Lake potash price uncertainty, the market reaction is not very intense, at present 60% crystal potassium sales agents in the Central Plains station price 2050 yuan, 57% small plant powder 1850 yuan sales Co. K, SDIC k-lo; new price recently announced, with the market rumors of a drop of 200 yuan, which is 51% for cash to powder agent Station offer 2500 yuan. In raw materials prices all the way down at the same time, decreases the cost of compound fertilizer, in Shandong Province as an example, calculated at the current price, 45% chlorine based general compound fertilizer raw materials cost has been reduced to around 1510 yuan, 45% of sulfur based pure raw material costs also fell to about 1750 yuan, to bid for business once again, the formation pressure.
Demand, cost and competition three big mountains and coping, compound fertilizer market down sound a piece, and repeated price does not become and save the market fundamental and compound fertilizer enterprises should own of, like urea industry, under the background of excess capacity only accelerate to capacity step cutting to is expected to enter a new situation. In the "Internet plus" is like a raging fire time, compound fertilizer should also change the traditional sales model line, increase the new online channels, make transactions more broad and effective. Also to advance with the times, the product can not be fixed, the pursuit of new fertilizer is also a wise move.