In late January 2016 has more than half, from the Spring Festival holiday has less than two weeks time, however, urea market is still a lack of positive boost, the majority of the country's urea prices still have varying degrees of decline. Due to the 2015 urea stored for the winter market is relatively weak, taking into account the profit space, most agricultural dealers tardy not a lot of preparing fertilizer. The winter preparation fertilizer alone is estimated at around 5% last year. But after the Spring Festival with the parts of wheat and other crops with fertilizer season the arrival of urea market is bound to usher in a small peak, then the problem to the, speaking for the majority of fertilizer dealers. Before the Spring Festival this time really is preparing fertilizer the best time? China fertilizer network analyst Xiao Sun from the following aspects to make an answer.
Supply and excess urea production capacity has become a cliche, we used to believe that even the arrival of the peak season, manufacturers will also guarantee the supply of adequate, but we should not neglect that is due to the market downturn and other factors, a urea manufacturers began to shut down for maintenance or production, urea opening rate declined, manufacturers inventory is low. Can be imagined, after the Spring Festival holiday, in early March before a short time, downstream of urea demand gradually increased, urea trend will be relatively strong, the price will be correspondingly. Look at the currently on the market. At the beginning of the week urea prices in most areas fell again 20 yuan / ton, part of the reason for low-cost manufacturers to lower the inventory, enable rapid return of funds, while taking into account the cost and the annual season with a fertilizer is expected ahead of the Lunar New year holiday urea continue to fall in the space is very limited.
Need we mentioned earlier, because of winter urea prices continue downward, dealers prepare manure is not active, is currently preparing fertilizer only about half of previous years, and only local agents have more by fertilizer and downstream secondary distributors and end of agricultural stores urea inventory amount is. We know that in the area of cultivated land in our country did not significantly reduce, which means that agricultural production on the urea demand remains the urea market is one of the main, then in the next year by fertilizer season, and terminal supply is not sufficient, which ultimately lead to the results may rebound over the price of urea.
Logistics, we after the analysis of the supply and demand, logistics became the critical on the one hand, especially before and after the Spring Festival, logistics and transport tension or will affect the manufacturers shipments and downstream distributors by fertilizer schedule. In order to ensure the supply during the Spring Festival, daily commodities. Fire operation will be more focus on holiday goods delivery, and for the shipment of the urea wagon will be very tense, long distance order blocked, urea manufacturers sales target focuses on short distance surrounding automotive up to the region, but near December 25, trucks will be less and less, transportation costs will increase, so before the Spring Festival urea preparation fertilizer during prime time, only about 1 week.
Although the macro urea production capacity surplus is an indisputable fact, but in a relatively short period of time, compound fertilizer factory of the procurement of raw materials and agricultural need slightly on the launch and other factors will lead to the concentration of urea prices, the price of urea rebound slightly. Integrated the above three aspects analysis, China Chemical Network Analyst sun that before the Spring Festival urea continue down the space has been very limited. In order to avoid tight supply in reserve fat season, resulting in market sales of delay, part of the terminal urea dealers should seize before the Spring Festival by the fat, according to their own circumstances, appropriate to take the goods, do a good job in reserve.