Second half of March urea prices firmer, as the two rivers Shandong factory factory price reached 1350-1400 yuan / ton, the cumulative increase within just ten days the price has reached 100 yuan / ton, only during the last week, four high-end offer small minority Sun down 10-20 yuan / ton. I believe we are concerned about why prices rose so much, and the price had not been able to follow the "half the market" rule and have dropped it? Faced with this situation, what should we do to avoid the dealers loss, even to maximize profit? Following is a network of Chinese fertilizer made this car.
Prices firm for three reasons, one for the dealer before too cautious in the year two rivers Shandong factory price 1200 yuan / ton or lower the amount of fat on the occasion of equipment is much lower than the same period last year, after the first wave of the rally lasted nearly half of the occasion, we are still very cautious, prepared fertilizer amount is not large, so the electricity market (April 20th price increase) on the eve of the two rivers Shandong and other places winter wheat topdressing replenishment occasion, to the dealer Jiangsu and Anhui and other places for the two rivers of rice, fertilizer and urea reserve in advance of the occasion, we have had to increase purchases of urea, in order to ensure the timely arrival of goods.
Second, demand for the fertilizer industry and industrial mill and other aspects of extremes meet, historical fertilizer companies operating rate of 4-5 percent, to mid-March operating rate reached 8 percent, so compelling for increasing the quantity of urea procurement especially fertilizer manufacturers rarely have large reserves of raw materials urea storage capacity, and believe or not, is not willing to reserve in advance, were pulling a larger urea prices rose; second half of February to early March and other industrial MILL also in the Spring Festival period of adjustment, the gradual recovery started in mid-March or April, promising to resume production and procurement plans for urea, urea prices rose for the building blocks.
Third confidence than enough for the factory, in order to stimulate the transaction prices to facilitate delivery prices, in order to maintain price stability, specific point of view, although dealers take appropriate increased volume, but prices rose more than 50 yuan / tonne-per-getting goods on the occasion of the number has been reduced, the speed has been slowing down, but the manufacturer to use its low-cost pre-signing or outgoing Federal Reserve to jointly sell orders for more, and the greater demand for industrial and agricultural spring (though not sustained ) the advantage of the price jumped up, firmly grasp the dealers "buy or not buy up" mentality, as much as possible to maintain strong offer.
Urea prices firm in the face of the situation, we have the dealer do?
First, is still cautious, price should not rise about space, said after the trial of strength that several positive factors are not large, consider the following data: last Thursday of this compensatory growth, although still a few manufacturers of urea, but there are few manufacturers due to lack of new single price down 10-20 yuan / ton, plus port urea fertilizer plant in Linyi reflux so that the prices of goods received from this wave of market high-end 1410-1420 yuan / ton after another small drop to about 1380 yuan / ton, and after mid-April is the grassroots fertilizer digestion period, the early to mid-April shipment fertilizer companies should be based, the operating rate should be gradually reduced, in particular India has repeatedly postponed its new urea procurement tenders and the United States prices continued to decline for three weeks, according to the current network statistics of urea fertilizer Port deposit up to 120-130 million tons, in addition April price increase of the stock market has been overdrawn in advance, so the next price of urea should be buffered for some time, namely a modest reduction .
Second, local dealers should be based on their local fertilizer sales set aside an appropriate time to time, set aside urea arrival time, and then calculate the storage charges and interest on these funds total time required and the like (of course primary dealers do not need to take this into account), click Next, and then combine the price of urea or 50 yuan / ton, even assuming a larger space down, and ultimately a comprehensive consider whether the current price is right, the risk of loss is so big and so .
Third, in the long term, the domestic production of urea oversupply should be thoroughly difficult to improve this year, about 400-500 million tons of new capacity coming into operation, the international community has also released new capacity, and weak global environment, China's domestic demand and export demand should be flat to down, combined with manufacturers shipping period is 7-14 days, so "half the market" rule still applies to the current urea market, but in the short term logistics mobilize quickly determine whether or not the price of the ongoing price can appropriate time longer than two weeks.