"During the spring of this year, an adequate supply of the main varieties of fertilizer, production is also relatively stable, last year the price of agricultural products narrow downturn makes the end of this year to plant the enthusiasm of poor, demand steadily." Analyst Xu Xu Shi told reporters said that this year's spring fertilizer market compared with previous years, dealer performance slightly hesitant, both stocking quantity or sales are not satisfactory.
Urea lead compound fertilizer
Analyst Xu Shuxian said that in the summer of high nitrogen fertilizer mostly, urea trend of summer fertilizer pricing plays a decisive role.
From mid March, the urea market price shocks up, and a larger. According to data show that as of March 25th, the mainstream of small particles in Shandong area in 1340 yuan ~1370 yuan / ton, compared with March 10th 1220 yuan ~1250 yuan / ton rose 120 yuan / ton, the average price rose 9.72%. Is the main cause of the downstream agricultural base fertilizer push, compound fertilizer factory summer prepare manure to start, the market supply is tight, speculation atmosphere caused by rising.
At present the main compound fertilizer enterprises to spring orders shipped, the price level adjusted carefully. From the main compound fertilizer enterprises of raw materials inventory situation, more than from mid March to start one after another into the material, the amount of stock in a month or so. Shandong area to the current arrival price point of view, corn fertilizer 40%cl28-6-6 raw material costs in 1330 yuan / ton, plus 300 yuan / ton production costs, the total cost of 1630 yuan / ton. But the present corn fertilizer in the mainstream price 1600 yuan ~1700 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Anhui in some low-end 1550 yuan / ton. Affected by the recent rise of urea to promote, raise some low-end offer intention of enterprises. But the summer fertilizer policy how to develop, the majority of enterprises still said that the need to wait and see, to further determine the trend of urea.
April urea is a good price, one is the export. But in addition to India exports a 500 thousand ~70 million tons of bidding plans, now no other big news. At the same time, it is understood that there are nearly 700 thousand tons of India port inventory, which will affect the export volume of China's urea. Also compound fertilizer factory of summer raw material stocking is already underway and post purchasing more according to the order of pre payment according to promote, and urea manufacturers overall operating load is higher, market supply and demand has not yet been fundamentally eliminated. Although there is a good support in April, but it seems to have been the end of the market by the end of the digest. At present, the urea market trend in the late, and even individual thought to be a slight pullback.
Multiple factors dominate the weak situation
Shi Xuxu said that the demand of spring fertilizer market started slowly, preparing fertilizer co.. Food prices gradually to the international close late downside risks remain, terminal farmers if grain yield loss, investment in agricultural areas will decrease. Because of this, a distributor distribution difficulty, abandon the previous a lot by fertilizer habits, is now adopted with the following operating mode.
Fertilizer product prices fell more than expected. Raw material prices in the past two years showed a downward trend, especially in the second half of 2015. As of now, the country's potash prices fell 25.4% compared with the same period last year, an ammonium price fell 14.14%, urea prices fell 14.74%. Raw material low bound conduction to the compound fertilizer, generally after stored for the winter, spring season, the demand price will rise, and this year, due to the overall preparation of fertilizer is lack of enthusiasm, some enterprises in February cut part of the ratio of prices, the magnitude of 50 yuan to 100 yuan / ton.
Manufacturers inventory pressure is not small, still plagued by financial problems. In September 1, 2015 the introduction of value-added tax so that most companies increase incentives to avoid costs, some wholesalers and retailers to buy more supply, so that now has not yet consumed more social inventory. Credit status and the fund that has been plagued by the agricultural industry.
Xu Xu Shi said that based on the above characteristics can be seen, the compound fertilizer of spring weak or difficult to have Huitianzhili, in the long run this year will be the key industry reshuffle a year, to production, regulate the development of the industry is not to talk about, the grim situation will spur the industry to speed up the pace of adjustment.
Xu Shuxian believes that the first half of urea is difficult to change radically market, which will determine the pricing of compound fertilizer enterprises cautious degree. Traditional summer fertilizer policy include interest, guaranteed, rebates, buy, etc., but under the background of the raw material is not stable, dealers more attention the actual buyout price. At the cost of preparation, the compound fertilizer prices and raw material costs are basically consistent, namely a substantial adjustment in the price of enterprises in Hefei is unlikely to answer. In addition to the local policy is expected to compound fertilizer in summer adjustment, large enterprises or mainstream prices stabilize.