Spring has basically ended, since the beginning of the urea has three wave of rising prices, lunar summer again, urea prices temporarily in a downward trend, since the holiday a week the mainstream of Shandong rivers urea factory price has the cumulative decline of 40-50 yuan / ton, the reason? How long is this weak market going to last? Urea also rose chance? Let us discuss the following.
Price drop is full of good out of bad: the electricity market, bidding in India have fall next heavy curtain, the urea market to bring positive has "speculation" after, the price makes the majority of urea manufacturers cost increase estimates only 20-50 yuan / ton; India end of the tender, winning the 62.5 million tons of urea, urea in China accounted for only 12.3-23.1 million tons, price on the low side, China offshore $218 / tons, combined China's urea price to Yantai port and other major ports only 1260-1270 yuan / tons, even lower than rivers manufacturer in Shandong ex factory price, how a tragic Zile de! Second, the production of compound fertilizer enterprises in the alternation of spring and summer interlude, China chemical network statistics the start rate from 7-8 dropped slightly to less than 7%, on the occasion of the spring fertilizer production mop up urea prices soar, at present this slightly empty rose has basically returned to rational, Linyi compound fertilizer factory in urea after price from early 1400-1420 yuan / tons gradually fell to recently 1330-1340 yuan / ton, the lower the price of urea, the reason can be described as self-evident! Third, fertilizer requirement of crops in most areas of northeast, northwest, North China, central China has basically ended, top dressing time is early, probably to to the mid to late dealers will demand for fertilizer for crops again buy urea.
Urea has the chance to rise, the urea enterprises recent appropriate price ceiling single, then will make full use of the operating rate is low, the production of compound fertilizer enterprises summer fertilizer demand for raw material procurement and around the crop fertilizer demand and other favorable factors, build the first half period price of urea another wave of rising prices.
Specifically, first, urea fertilizer enterprises underemployment, according to China network statistics, as of now there are about 23 of urea production enterprises in the state, many of Cangzhou, Henan, Jiangsu, Jilin two days of Changshan such main enterprises, the average operating rate is only about 73.4%, compared with last week low of about 0.5%, in Shaanxi, Hunan and other places have large upcoming practice shutdowns, it is understood that the annual 3-5 in appropriate temperature, low rainfall, the enterprises usually overhaul use this time to ensure the rest of the month to full open, achieve the goal of reducing the cost, the price of urea is insufficient the rise could be.
Second, compound fertilizer enterprises summer fertilizer production is not completely end (presumably ended late May / early June), the spring fertilizer production and sales situation is not ideal, the hope for the summer fertilizer must higher than the same period last year, recently started rate decreased gradually, a brief standoff are to next with urea enterprises can get a moderate and low price, summer fertilizer to Maize of high nitrogen fertilizer mainly, I believe sooner or later will bring some support to the urea prices.
Third, in most parts of the country of crop fertilizer requirements are not started, such as rice in Central China in early June will fertilize and corn in Northeast China, North China in mid June and began dressing, East China in late June / July early summer maize and rice have fertilizer demand, to account for 7 days or slightly longer delivery period, take into account the dealers must sell time, considering the pre dealers have been careful to prepare fertilizer, we have reason to believe that urea prices in late May before have rising opportunity.