Three basic nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer, China currently only potassium still need to import large quantities of, and nitrogen and phosphorus has come to have a degree of dependence on exports, but whether it is a large number of exports and imports, China in the international fertilizer market undoubtedly has a pretty voice. India, another country that plays an important role in the international fertilizer market, is different from us. They need a large amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. All along, in the geographical position and the influence of the factors such as the use of fertilizer and other factors, India and China's fertilizer market can be described as love hate intertwined.
In 2015 / 16 the fertilizer market at home and abroad all is shrouded in haze, aggravating the buyer the right to speak, for export has produced dependence of urea, diammonium it, bitter days. Customs data show that 1-4 months of this year, China's fertilizer exports 7 million 740 thousand tons, down 26.7%; the amount of exports of U.S. dollars, down 39.8%. The data is not deceptive, this time they don't even say domestic phasing out fertilizer to enjoy the preferential policies, restore the value added tax, set to 2020 chemical fertilizer zero growth ambitions of these for this fertilizer market "under a leaking roof slants meet a rainy night" thing, say the tears.
India has just ended a urea tender, a total of winning the 62.5 million tons of urea, and the supply of our country only hundreds of thousands of tons, and only $217-218 FOB / ton. Bangladesh also just the end of the next fiscal year (July 1, 2016 in June to July 30, to 2017) 35 million tons of diammonium tender, 10 bit supplier on the lowest CIF quotation interval is only $334.89-341.88 / tons; and prior to this, China and India are NFL company reached 5 million tons of diammonium tender, winning CIF is still 350.45 U.S. dollars / ton. What does this mean? Mean urea competition is intense, even accept low may not be able to export a large quantity of, or to want to export a lot of must have lower, much lower price. It means India late a lot of diammonium bidding will depress prices further. From the comparison in the table below is not difficult to find, the urea, diammonium export prices varying degrees lower than the domestic market, in fact, even have been lower than the cost in the industry in general. The "dependency" obviously, the "hate" has!
Facing the embarrassment of urea and diammonium phosphate, potassium chloride had touzhuoyue. Price of potassium chloride at a year, our country imports large contract is $315, India is 332 U.S. dollars, at present our country's new contract is not signed, and the Indian side first is engaged in a $297 transitional price recently and in a little tender has been more than 250 dollars, and at the same time, the other major import region of Brazil, the Southeast Asian market also is low, so that in itself is a huge weight of us, not to hard negotiations can already get 250 dollars less than the price, and we have full reason to believe, as long as no accident, we obtain 200-230 dollar price is very possible to discount CIF).
However, so far, China's major contract negotiations have not yet been a result, most of the industry think before the end of 5 to talk about the possibility of a larger, but also some people think it will be dragged into the second half. Have to say is, a long time variables will also increase, but we are, after all negotiations are not representative, a lot of leftover is not we, a businessman, there is no need to engage in too deep. Now we just need to know, at least before it really clear, worried that the resulting prices fell further concerns the potassium chloride in a downturn trend is hard to change, near section time potassium chloride is likely to gradually began to fall.