Domestic diammonium since last September began to encounter cold storm, cold until now has been lingering in diammonium markets around, although the enterprise overall operating rate than before a slight downward revision, but demand at home and abroad intensity general, demand reduction higher than the decline in the overall supply, plus fixed overcapacity, under internal and external diammonium prices as a whole is still in the downward trend. The recent exchange of Shandong area and the trader said "years ago and the same industry open joke said, diammonium now market downturn, price or will fall to 08-09 year the big trough time..." , due to the contact with the industry in a relatively short time, the "roller coaster" type of diammonium did not have deep understanding, also can only observe the plain from the data.
From the first chart can be seen from the second half of 2008 began, a sharp decline in the price of diammonium, 2009 September prices fell to the lowest level, is also in the past ten years gancaosuaneran prices low, 64% ammonium phosphate factory price 2150 yuan / ton, after January 2014 at a low price, recent domestic second lowest dip, now stage 64% diammonium mainstream factory quotation in 2250-2300 yuan / tons, so the price can refresh record low? The author thinks that are likely to be, look at the following explanation:
First domestic market oversupply. According to the statistics of China chemical network, 2016 domestic will add at least 240 million tons of diammonium new capacity, so that the overall capacity of the domestic diammonium gradually moving to the 30 million tons, while domestic table apparent consumption of high-end is expected in less than 13 million tons, according to the current production capacity even calculations, then the export 800-1000 million tons in the domestic enterprises diammonium will have a satisfactory started, although the current operating rate temporarily low and port stocks less, but its storage greatly, in addition, due to the adjustment of economic environment, both at home and abroad, there is no such a big demand, the problem of excess has existed for a long time, and this year increased this show, late prices remain certain fall risk.
Second, the raw material market is relatively weak. It is reported that the recent domestic resources from July 1, re adjustment, but the cost of diammonium pulling power Co., such as from a factory in Sichuan Province was informed that the price of phosphate rock is from the amount of taxable, no matter how many grade phosphate rock were according to 15 yuan / ton levy, after the adjustment of the phosphate rock according to 3-8% from ad valorem, to local 30% grade phosphate rock, for example, storage price in 400-450 yuan / ton, adjust drafted the resource tax for 12 to 36 yuan / ton, such as the consideration of other material constant, cost of diammonium late rose in 40 yuan / tons or less, limited gains. And sulfur recent trading slowdown, Hong a backlog of deposit amount is more, Puguang refinery due to inventory pressure has entered the maintenance phase, rising short-term there is no signs. Raw materials for overall support is weak, the cost is expected to rise the price should be no diammonium may.
Finally, weak market demand. From the above graph can be seen, the last period of domestic diammonium prices fall into the low for January 2014, when, in the midst of winter reserves fertilizer season, and within a short period of time within the spring market demand started, demand stronger efforts to support. But the current domestic spring market demand has passed, autumn market demand is too early, at present, our country is in the lean period, exports in the near future, although the enquiry, but the prices are relatively low, so that enterprises greater losses, according to the statistics of export prices equivalent to the domestic factory price less than 1900 yuan / ton, with Diammonium gradually tend to be international, the downturn in the international market will pull low domestic prices, while India last year, the number of purchase larger, occupy a relative initiative, coupled with the early domestic diammonium enterprise very price failure, domestic diammonium enterprises more significant passive, this quotation to see, diammonium prices there will still be continued to decline trend.
In summary, the domestic price of diammonium recently still keep downward may, but as to whether the latter can be below their historic lows remains to be elegant. In the short term, we should mainly focus on India purchasing and enterprise itself started adjustment, based on the above points and diammonium prices decline when to stop.