In late May, the domestic market trend is still a weakness of urea, factory price surface strong, but there are also Anxiang situation. Market there is no lack of good can be expected, but the lower reaches of the dealer's cautious attitude from the terminal market is not positive, the market is not positive, before trying to short the psychological shadow of the market after the defeat. Also because of this, the domestic enterprises urea to offer strong, not only actively in may arrange the maintenance, even some enterprises initiative to limit production of insured. Waiting for the downstream agricultural market to be able to stimulate the rapid start of a mature factor.
Prices bottomed out to be rebound. According to statistics: as of mid May, the overall operating rate of domestic urea enterprises has been reduced to about 65%, and there is a possibility of further decline. Which in addition to the normal maintenance of the enterprise, there is no lack of some small and medium enterprises urea due to the cost of serious upside down and try converting or exit. Frankly, from the second half of last year, so far, the domestic urea prices hovering at 1250 - 1400 yuan / ton level. Don't talk about what the night returned to liberation can at least appreciate the elimination of backward production capacity is. From more than half of the enterprise feedback point of view, the industry's excess capacity has been moderately eased. The upcoming summer fertilizer market, due to the dealer recently cautious wait-and-see, stock market volume is generally low, the mainstream enterprises urea although not much amount of momentum, but its inventory nor pressure said. So we have reasons to believe that, once you start the agricultural market, compound fertilizer enterprises will also increase the procurement of raw materials, the price of urea is an occasion to rise, the centralized procurement of downstream distributors is bound to bring a tightening of supply and demand. As for some of the industry to take into account the price cycle is too short, the market is short-lived and the like, the author believes that this will depend on the operation of the plant model. If you can do "slow up dream", a new round of price of urea cycle is expected to maintain more than half a month.
India two strokes deliberately short. With the India MMTC company in the first round of the year ended April 25th, the industry is generally optimistic about the next phase of China's Urea Export Situation pessimistic. Only from the first round of the Indian tender a total turnover of 62.5 million tons of urea, China has provided FOB consider 217-218 U.S. dollars / tons of insufficient supply 20 million tons, low-priced exports to resist not only the domestic spot even port early more than half of chenhuo inventory also reluctant to compromise. India finally helpless from the Middle East, Iran and other ways to gather together the 60 tens of thousands of tons of supply a job. At this point, many people in the industry speculated that the first round of India bidding, will be in the near future to re tender, and optimistic attitude. Indeed, in May 12th India STC released 19 urea import tender, tender offer is valid until 27 days. Seeing this, it seems that everything is developing as predicted. The next shipment: July 5th late June, why not? Remember last week we see the reaction after shipment, can only say that picture is so beautiful I can not see. India is deliberately released a smoke bomb? Or a heart test? Of course, some of the media in India in the first quarter of agriculture due to the lack of rainfall to stimulate, less than the previous year sales of about 1 million tons, to show their domestic supply and demand is not even possible relative loose. More delayed until July schedule to provide adequate stocking period for the international market. Because of this, before the good trader of the second round of the India tender rapidly "treachery, and forecast a round of bidding price or will be lower than in previous of 218 million U. s.dollars / ton. Although firms in our country collective statement urea FOB below 230 dollars / ton do not supply, but because the shipping date until July, even if China does not participate in, Iran, Saudi Arabia, yuzhny bidding quantity alone is also expected to get 60 million tons of goods.
To sum up, domestic urea market downturn has been near the summer with the fat, the current industry started down the supply rate of centralized procurement, tight supply and demand has been recognized by the market. So do not have to pay too much attention to India second round of bidding, after all, its holding a short attitude, the bid price does not have the domestic reference value. The author is more looking forward to India after the third round of the third round of the no fruit.