Time flies, time flies, in the twinkling of an eye, half of the time in a hurry, compound fertilizer finally in the difficult completed the course during the first half of the year, through the 2013 season is not busy, 2014 with the following pin, 2015 ups and downs, in the first half of 2016. The biggest characteristic of compound fertilizer market is demand delayed and reduced, season go goods not warm not fire. As China fertilizer in the 2015 compound fertilizer in the annals of 2016 compound fertilizer Market Outlook: "2016 the first half of the year, the compound fertilizer market as a whole or will continue to slump, in 3-5 months used in fertilizer demand period may will be a wave of preparing fat small peak, prices will remain stable, but demand is relatively concentrated, transportation would be strained, and demand after the compound fertilizer market will quickly enter the dull period."

　　Follow Chinese fertilizer net monthly, on 2016 on the first half of the market to do a simple review of compound fertilizer:

　　January: "the cold of the century arrival after the new year's day, the compound fertilizer of winter storage market was still weak, by raw material prices continue to decline, downstream of the wait-and-see mood worse, most enterprises take the goods is not ideal, operating rate is still hovering in the low, to introduction of provisional price. At the same time, the development related subsidies and other preferential policies, to stimulate the downstream play money preparing fertilizer, but the downstream by fertilizer enthusiasm is still poor, companies take the volume is still less. Mid to late January, the weather cold wave hit, compound fertilizer market has entered a "century of the cold, winter storage progress is very slow, the Northeast winter reserves the amount of fertilizer is still at 3-4%, a few enterprises take fed aggregators of the factory inventory forward, but the terminal by fertilizer progress is still slow, the compound fertilizer of winter storage price dropping lower and lower.

　　February: after the Spring Festival, enterprises operating rate gradually pick up after the Spring Festival holiday, compound fertilizer to the overall operating rate gradually pick up to 63%, the spring needs to promote, mainly in northeast spring preparation fertilizer demand and two rivers of central China and other places of wheat turning green fertilizer demand started, at the same time of double cropping rice, the Southern markets for fertilizer demand started, so after mid February, compound fertilizer enterprises take the goods gradually undermined. But on the one hand by the overall impact of agricultural products and composite fertilizer raw material prices, the downstream still do not dare to have a big move, so the amount of fertilizer production is lower than the same period last year.

　　March: needs to start, start recovery in early March, Shandong, rivers and other places of wheat with fertilizer demand coincided with the peak season, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises take the goods to the upside, take the volume increased, but the major enterprises to twelve distributors replenishment based, terminal market still eager to take goods, most are still maintain a wait-and-see attitude; in late March, terminal equipment fertilizer demand started, especially in the northeast, until the end of the month, northeast compound fertilizer shipments increased gradually, supply slightly tight, and nitrogenous fertilizer and potash fertilizer raw materials of local goods tightens price Yang effect, mixing fertilizer price slightly rise. Overall, in March the compound fertilizer to go smooth, stable prices, operating rates have picked up.

　　April: overall stability, high nitrogen exploration rose slightly in the first half of the month, Northeast China in summer corn preparation fertilizer demand into the season, most enterprises in the northeast of tight supply, logistics tension and individual enterprise products in short supply, main reason is raw materials of potash fertilizer prices rose in the northern port, urea prices rise, coupled with the demand to enter the era of concentration, so northeast compound fertilizer and mixed mixed fertilizer demand has experienced nearly 20 days or so to go goods peak, enterprises in other regions to take the goods is relatively stable, enterprises operating rate remains above 85%; in the second half of April, Northeast China in summer fertilizer demand tail sweep, northeast enterprises continue to enter the parking overhaul period, the enterprise main cleaning product inventory. In the Central Plains region corn fertilizer demand at the beginning, high nitrogen compound fertilizer to take the goods gradually improved, prices rose slightly, but the increase is little, little impact on the actual operation of the market price.

　　May: Summer fertilizer demand turn pale operating rate will continue to decline in the first half of May, the majority of dealers by fertilizer has reached about two thirds of the, but by the downturn in the market for raw materials, low prices of agricultural products impact, grassroots preparation fertilizer start very slowly, hindered the downward movement of the enterprise products, goods to go more slowly, inventory pressure and. Affected by this, this month compound fertilizer enterprises operating rate gradually declines, overall operating rate from 68% at the beginning of the month has fallen to about 55% at the end of the month, and even regional enterprises operating rate only 3-4%, parking overhaul of a few enterprises, most enterprises according to the needs of production. 5 at the end of the month, a small number of enterprises in order to stimulate the lower reaches of the goods, for the introduction of high nitrogen fertilizer related preferential policies, the magnitude of about 30-50 yuan, but the market is mediocre, little effect.

　　June: Summer fertilizer demand over into June, compound fertilizer market demand gradually into the off-season, summer corn fertilizer demand mop up, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises take the goods by the cold, some enterprises introduced preferential policies or offer directly down, but to no avail, by the end of June, compound fertilizer enterprises operating rate fell significantly, overall operating rate of less than 4 percent, most enterprises advantage of off-season "rehabilitate" maintenance, planning in early July to resume production after another, then to wheat production and fertilizer mainly, at present only a few enterprises introduction of autumn light storing loan interest policy, but the downstream this is not cold.

　　2016 market during the first half of the year in silence over the next compound fertilizer enterprises will fall short storage market to make the production preparation, then during the late fall fertilizer prices will be how to do?

　　1, the price trend of raw materials

　　Urea prices all the way down, since the beginning of May so far, Shandong area small particles urea factory price from 1310 yuan / ton down to 1240 yuan / ton, and did not stop the decline in