July, the students will usher in an unforgettable and happy summer, but for the potash market, this July should also be memorable, but it may not be happy.

　　Bad one: demand is still difficult to vibration

　　Shrouded in the haze of the sluggish global economy, China's GDP growth also slowed down significantly, has made people in the various markets are on pins and needles. Especially since last year prices in the doldrums, situation of second half of the year is to not to be optimistic, coupled with serious disasters of El Nino climate, is expected to fertilizer so-called rigid demand also avoid obstacle will be appropriate to shrink. Excess capacity, structure adjustment under the pressure of most of the manufacturers have become unusually cautious, according to China chemical network statistics as of the end of June compound fertilizer industry operating rate is only about 3 percent and parts manufacturers has to Bulgarian form reserves the right amount of potash, July demand will pick up? I'm afraid the need for "summer vacation"!

　　Bad two: the supply is still adequate

　　The time should be in the autumn potassium sulfate amount of outgoing allegedly monthly port of the potassium chloride to save about 160 million tons (but said in addition to strategic reserves the actual sales volume is limited, the bonded area volume of 100 million tons slightly high; 6, July, border trade, the goods may be reduced to 3 million tons; Qinghai area about 50 million tons, and the monthly production of about 60 million tons; resource inventory in 40 million tons or more, but the Luo potassium summer overhaul, to August until late to resume production, the market supply of 600 million tons or so, at least there will be 350 million tons, the two actual figures tend to which depends on the contract signed. The former is expected to be more likely, so to take into account the downstream demand weakened and part of the inventory on the channel, the fall of potassium chloride supply should be adequate!

　　Bad three: the cost is still looking down

　　Although a sudden Raiders in India the first to finalize the new contract, even if because the "rules" change our negotiations will be slightly sink passivity, but in the international potash fertilizer market also is not an ideal situation, the ultimate price will with India's $227 CIF price very close to expected may also be in the range of $220-230, namely early net CIF price is not higher than $210 expected continues to be established. The cost of $210 corresponding port 60% pink about 1700 yuan, the market price of yuan in 1780-1800, have a little space, and 62% white potash prices are still 1950-2070 yuan, beyond the normal premium, late if down its magnitude may also be relatively greater. Also July 1, resource tax reform for ad valorem, around specific standards have yet to publicity, it is estimated will be a decline in the average cost of the potassium chloride in Qinghai, Xinjiang potassium sulfate 100 yuan!

　　Currently large uncertainty maximum mainly potassium chloride contract. As mentioned above, if big contract shall continue to be dragged on, the source may be tight, at least in the downstream of careful purchasing behavior, short-term and local tension is likely to occur. From the time point of view, in July if you do not sign a big contract, it seems that this year there is no need to re sign the necessary, directly and so on the end of the year we guess the 2017 major contracts. It is expected that in July will be a month of potash market tends to be clear, the key lies in this summer holiday, a lot of people, so I am afraid that the industry is still not music up.