Fertilizer market stumbled forward, during the first half of 2016 the mainstream fertilizer price repeatedly frustrated, especially for spring since the fat end, some kind of price is fat in all previous refresh domestic record prices for nearly a decade, is now into the middle of July, according to the usual habits soon, factory production, the sale will start fall market, field each fertilizer in autumn this year the market price will be low, but which kind of fertilizer can be the first to take the lead in rising?

　　First look at the present stage domestic mainstream fertilizer kinds of current market:

　　Urea market, though a recent price separate areas for agriculture needs a slightly better price upward, but the overall market is still not too optimistic, and even individual factories for improving go cargo, and will settle ex-factory price down to 1060 yuan/ton, it is currently in the industry, although later agriculture has certain requirements, but the overall domestic supply is bigger, such as injection without external factors, there are signs of a sharp rise in the market difficult; Demand for urea fertilizer market and the autumn is not so strong, more alternative products, such as ammonium chloride, ammonium sulfate, etc. Although recent export has clinch a deal, but the price is low, such as the quantitative tender, of the 420000 tons in India talk Iran for the lowest bid price in this tender, and for CFR in only $179.95 / ton, according to the price fall pushing China to the port only in 995 yuan/ton, the industry said this price is lower than expected domestic factories, its domestic factory bid at $195 - $205 / ton cif, hence the look, enterprises to export to reduce domestic supply pressure will still more difficult to achieve.

　　Ammonium ammonium and second: autumn market as the main high phosphate fertilizer, and the domestic like product alternative strength is relatively low, although the rigid demand support strength is relatively abundant, but the market is still not satisfactory. Domestic ammonium a overall design production capacity in more than 20 million tons, combined with the market is relatively weak, a domestic ammonium prices downward and the previous individual factory 55% powder ammonium actual producer price is below 1500 yuan/ton, the price of before and after 14 years in May, although the factory with the downstream enterprises expand the fed interlock, but at this stage, after all, not to fall with fertilizer season less actual consumption of goods, to choose more supply of goods, And exports progress, 55% ammonium particles a fob exports only within the $270 / ton, and clinch a deal amount is relatively small; In conclusion, both at home and abroad demand slow start, the ammonium enterprise pressure will gradually get bigger, the price down also. Diammonium breaking low price, 64% diammonium mainstream export prices have dropped to $320 / tons, equivalent to the domestic price to the port only is controlled in 1900 yuan/ton, the domestic market is also in hot water, shandong two rivers such as phosphate traders, the main consumption area, though an enquiry, but the actual clinch a deal amount is few, firms have to enter the price war, is understood to be on the market at present stage 57% diammonium price hit degree is most serious, shandong 57% diammonium outbound price dropped to 1850 yuan/ton. And calcium, calcium magnesium phosphate fertilizer demand has entered the off-season, although price drop will not appear, but due to the low visibility, price is difficult to upward; Coarse whiting recent export also slightly in general, the price to the port only is controlled in 1350 yuan/ton, ammonium phosphate market is expected to fall should will be slightly better, but the goods in short supply, the price is high, as last year the possibility of stability is relatively low.

　　Potassium chloride and potassium sulfate, potassium chloride in China recently big contract finalised this month 14, at last, the Chinese potash joint negotiating team at $219 per metric ton cif China submitted to the industry on a satisfactory answer, but according to China's potash fertilizer net Du Shuangjiang analysts said in the context of the entire industry downturn, potassium chloride market still can't see the big improvement may temporarily, in a big contract with potash quickly sent fee and other related problems is not clear, that is to say the late decline in the cost of potassium chloride are still some possibilities. Potassium sulfate and potassium chloride as the main raw material, that is to say, potassium sulfate potassium chloride will be blame.

　　Change compound fertilizer, fertilizer prices rely mainly on two points, first of all, the market into the peak season after the goods in short supply; Secondly, the raw material up larger space as a whole. But according to the current market analysis, the probability of these two kinds of possibility are relatively low, and the possibility of a rise in compound fertilizer is low.

　　In conclusion, the several main kinds of fat still bearish in the face of more or less, according to the low price, each kind of fertilizer has below the record low, but according to the reduction, urea decline is larger, relative to other kinds of fat for priority will be a rebound, but the specific time will still be considerations.