After National Day, around the urea market appeared a small step back in succession, the rate is far lower than the historical period, the main reason is that the coal prices: shenhua, China coal, such as coal, yitai four big coal enterprise will be October 5500 kcal long association coal water price increase 88 yuan/ton to 548 yuan/ton, qinhuangdao port spot trading price is close to 600 yuan/ton, coal prices also once raised nearly 100 yuan/ton, is the biggest one calendar year pricing. Rapid rise in the price of coal, add to the already serious loss of urea industry capacity utilization of urea is expected to decline, and have some money in advance to bottom.

　　Put aside a good coal, the author thinks that the urea market is all bad, because the space is limited, the author in this don't do analysis, today can focus on coal prices remain high or continued to rise.

　　Supply side in the country reform under the background of coal on the one hand, vigorously to capacity, on the other hand, rules of manufacture shall not be higher than 276 days, 1 - August this year because coal production fell by 10.2% year-on-year, that is to say the coal price increases is not caused by strong demand, but the result of the government macroeconomic regulation and control, compressed supply. In view of the rapid rise in the price of coal, development and reform commission (NDRC) in September, four meetings were held to discuss increasing coal production, limit the rise in the price of coal policy kept increasing, and introduced the main measures are advanced capacity can choose between 276 and 330 working days, increase the output of 1 million tons a day, compared with 1 - an average daily output increased by 11% in August. Above shows that government have enough means, have enough willingness to control rapidly rising prices. As the macroeconomic regulation and control policy easing and price to the allure of the enterprise, increase rate of coal may be higher than expected, and increase of import coal, coal prices can be judged is not continuous.

　　Considering current social inventory has been severely undervalued, enterprise production need time, fill inventory also need time, plus the winter use of coal peak superposition, rising prices in the short term there are inertia, but will eventually return to the lower limit of power coal price 460 yuan/ton regulation and even lower.

　　The current hot spot is about 20 cities in China issued the property market restrictions, some predict the real estate market will appear a turning point in the second quarter of next year. If real estate turning points, so the demand of the steel, cement and non-ferrous will decline, with the decrease of electric power, coal demand and eventually lead to a drop in prices.

　　Taken together, the author expects the price of coal may be in the first quarter of next year before the channel into the fall, in the short term support for urea price, lack of support for a long time.

　　The current downturn in the huge contrast to the urea and soaring coal prices, then the current high prices will quickly realize urea to capacity? Surviving domestic urea production capacity or the listed company, either a low-cost advanced capacity, or coal fertilizer integration enterprise, is a large state-owned enterprises, either to stop can not is one of the few companies that can remove the capacity of the late has been minimal. Even with the expected starts to drop, also just hibernate activity, as long as the "spring" (or coal prices or urea prices), will "wake up", so only with the help of the current coal prices to compress the supply of urea, reduce the carryover stocks into next year, just can have real transit urea market.

　　The author thought that the direct cost of materials can make the price of the bottom line, but it is strange that in the case of coal prices rose sharply, the early stop instead of part of the capacity of production, the author is really hard to understand the domestic production enterprises of the bottom line. Can't use coal instead of short-term for long-term prices, cannot substitute the judgment of the cost to take the place of judgment of supply, can settle for second best, draw lessons from stock right trading operation way: no matter the discretion of the enterprise cost, only urea starts fell sharply, further may be the bottom of the market.