Fertilizer is energy-intensive products, its price is closely related to energy prices. Since this year, as to increase the capacity of strength, coal production, coal prices continue to rise. Not only up prices, price of natural gas will also increase. However, energy prices and no conduction into the fertilizer market. Why fertilizer prices did not follow up?

　　On September 28, bohai sea thermal coal price index closed at 561 yuan (tons of price, similarly hereinafter), the previous 7 yuan rising during the reporting period, the price index of 14 consecutive rise; Prices rise 371 yuan, 190 yuan from early this year, has risen to 51.2%, prices continue to refresh the year record.

　　Recently, the oil and oil and gas trading center in Shanghai jointly held a seminar, conference is expected to the possibility of shortage of natural gas this winter. The national development and reform commission, the price department sources said at the seminar, the winter of 2016 gas peak shaving will be within 20% of the price rise. On October 12, the national development and reform commission formally issued the measures for the management of natural gas pipeline transportation price (try out) "and" natural gas pipeline transportation pricing cost whose method (try out) ", will be allowed to yield a clear for the after-tax return on investment of 8%.

　　About 70% of the domestic urea using coal as raw materials, parts of the recent coal prices of nearly 100 yuan, the urea production cost increase 100 yuan. A further 30% or so of urea with natural gas as raw material, if gas per cubic metre rose 0.1 yuan, the urea production cost is expected to increase 60 yuan. Its if gas prices rise 20% this year, per cubic meter of 0.2 ~ 0.4 yuan, the urea production cost will be increased by 120 ~ 240 yuan.

　　The current urea price is over 1200 yuan. Why energy prices rise, fertilizer prices did not follow up? According to market analysts, the main four reasons:

　　First, seasonal factors. Fertilizer use mainly in the first half of the year, especially during the spring dosage the biggest, in the second half of the fertilizer rate less than 40% of annual consumption. Winter wheat fertilization period is a bigger period in the second half of the amount, the fat is nearing an end. Other vegetables, fruit trees and other economic crops in autumn and winter with fat, but low agricultural prices this year, farmers' enthusiasm is not high, coupled with the fertilization is scattered, difficult to form concentrated fertilization period; Fertilizer had winter this year the situation is optimistic, because the international price is low, exports is expected in the fourth quarter will not be too big, difficult to see big positive on the market, dealers with the enthusiasm is not high, the market demand is weak.

　　Second, capacity utilization is not ". Urea price so low this year, the enterprise loss serious, arguably enterprise utilization should be more and more low, but according to industry statistics, in late September, as part of the urea production enterprises, operating at a slightly higher level of domestic urea overall capacity utilization increased from 55% to 55% or so. Dealers can't help but doubt: well, it seems that manufacturers of compressive ability is beyond imagination. Losses to production enterprise, dealers worry fertilizer production will continue to increase, the contradiction between supply and demand of market, state of mind is generally more cautious.

　　Three is the domestic price in line with international standards. Domestic fertilizer prices more and integrate with the world market, now the international fertilizer in low price, fob urea was only $180 to $195, fob diammonium at $320 to $340, potassium chloride spot in 192 to $240. International prices so low, also hard to domestic prices.

　　Four is the market reaction lag. After rising energy prices, is likely to be a period of time after the fertilizer prices will follow up. On the one hand, the market need to make sure that energy prices are real and effective; Enterprise, on the other hand, due to production needs, most will have a certain amount of raw material inventory, enterprises should be early to buy low-priced stocks after the energy to digest, can a cost increase, then the urgency of the enterprise rises in price will be more intense.

　　Market participants said, should not be late for fertilizer market excessively bearish, although the fertilizer prices is difficult, but from the overall, as costs rise, at the bottom of the chemical fertilizer price support enhanced obviously, are unlikely to fall sharply again until next spring planting, fertilizer prices is controlled yuan is also possible.