This year, food prices are not ideal, the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain decreased. However, to the fertilizer winter season, the market is "up" sound: urea, compound fertilizer up. What is the reason from this "boom"? When do you want to go up? Dealer winter enthusiasm affected by it?
Winter reserves of up to 30%
According to the situation in the past two years, the winter has been a cold storage. However, this year the market is somewhat strange. 2016 national day, urea prices change the flagging market sharply higher. As of November 18th, our province urea mainstream offer 1520 - 1560 yuan / ton, individual urea manufacturers to a large amount of orders, control orders. Compared with the price in August, has risen by 300 to 200 yuan per ton. The rise of the big, fast speed, it is be struck dumb.
This round of urea prices rose, allegedly coal prices, the cost increases due to. The reporter understands, urea production of raw coal from the beginning of 300 yuan / ton rose to the current 600 yuan / ton, coal prices have boosted the price of urea; at the same time, in September 21st this year launched the "transportation vehicle management regulations", limiting the truck weight, freight fertilizer also increased a lot. Urea prices rose in the lead, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer, and so also want to rise in price.
This urea compound fertilizer over the off-season counter attack soaring, winter storage but it started very slowly. According to the usual practice, after the phosphate fertilizer fertilizer market immediately into the winter period of fertilizer reserves this year, according to the reporter, now Fertilizer Trading is still in the flat period.
At present, the country, around the winter storage price is still uncertain. The introduction of a compound fertilizer enterprises offer winter storage mainly concentrated in our province, Shandong, Hubei and Hunan, Jiangsu, 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer individual provisional winter storage factory price in 1650-1820 yuan / ton, 45% sulfur compound fertilizer individual provisional winter storage factory price in 1830-1930 yuan / ton, Shandong high-end price in the 2050 yuan / ton, some enterprises have money interest policy.
Overall, the overall amount of winter reserves as a whole is only up to 20%-30% in previous years.
Dealers more cautious than in previous years
In the past, winter storage of fertilizer than the next year in the spring to buy the price can be cheaper by about 10%. But in recent years due to fluctuations in the price of fertilizer is too big, a lot of agricultural households in the winter did not benefit but a loss, which makes them suspicious of winter. Especially in the face of urea prices rose this year, dealers are relatively cautious in the face of a lot of winter storage.
In order to prevent the re take the last mistakes - "off-season high stockpile, season sale, Changfeng County Water Town agricultural households Chen Jinbang said that this year is not going to the winter.
"It is difficult to do agricultural business, the crop harvest is not good this year, spring, late spring coldness of high temperature and drought in summer, many farmers lack confidence in the investment in agricultural farming, reduce the number of." Gao Jie Suixi qijizhen agricultural business said that the past 3 months to prepare fertilizer prepared with some goods every month. But this year he still wanted to "halt the troops and wait, wait for some time. "Compared to the manufacturers in August to the low price, the price of a bag of 10 dollars a bag to be higher. This price is too lost, I'll wait and see!" Gao Jie revealed.
Reporters found that some manufacturers have felt the negative dealer inventory, they also began to take the initiative to reduce production, improve the factory price, less to sell more profits to prepare for winter storage. Most compound fertilizer enterprises receivables is not ideal, the rate of recovery is slow, the current overall operating rate is still maintained at about 43%.
Outlook is still up space
So, there is the price of urea in the late space?
According to the national development and Reform Commission data show that 1 - September, the national coal production of 24.6 tons, down 10.5%." November 3rd, the ring Bohai power coal price index closed at 607 yuan / ton, a record high since the beginning of this year, compared with the beginning of 371 yuan / ton, up 236 yuan / ton. Per ton of coal per ton of coal consumption of 1.55 tons of coal, which means that from the beginning of the year, only one of the coal, the cost of urea companies rose by 365.8 yuan / ton.
In the short term, because the price of coal market is still strong, in addition to fertilizer, raw material prices, and rising freight costs, environmental transformation, years ago, urea prices remain high probability.