Beginning in mid November, the market experienced a sharp increase after the urea, the beginning of rational fall, according to LIAN gold urea price index shows that in November, the highest point in 1470, until the first week of December, fell to 1440, down 2.04%. But the market did not urea in the second week of December, unable to get up after a fall, the local market appeared again signs of a rebound, it will increase the urea market?
From the above chart shows, the second week of December, Shandong factory prices rise trend, the main reason for the lower part of the local industry, the increase in demand, major companies this week has new single turnover, the market improved slightly, especially in Linyi, compound fertilizer enterprises receiving local market order, only an occasion pushed up slightly. This will not only a small range of individual market prices? A UN think this is not on the market, there is a saying that good, the urea at Shandong, each round of price of urea from the Shandong market is really started, the arrival of the market or will also be the case, Linyi, Heze two regions can be said to be connected with various markets, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Shanxi and other regions have supply sales, therefore, Heze, Linyi market goods price adjustment will affect the surrounding areas, the Shandong will start up or urea prices rise again.
Rise or a certain, the key is how much can rise, how long can continue problems. To pull up the market for short-term power, is a demand in some areas of industrial drive, although some compound fertilizer enterprises again stage goods, but the overall construction is still low compared to previous years, so the growth in industrial demand driven upward is only short-term market; two is also more optimistic about the overall mentality. The market outlook and confidence, some people believe that the December agriculture or will be stocking, just need to meet the next spring. So what can rise much, had analysts believe that next year the spring, or the price of urea can reach 1900 yuan / ton, it would be too optimistic, but it is possible to rise between 1600-1650.
In the long term, and that the coal market capacity, joint, dynamic and environmental protection tariff situation will be an important factor affecting the overall trend of the. Recently, the state vigorously regulation of coal prices, in the spring of next year as the end of the northern heating, coal prices will drop slightly, although affected by government policies, not to the original low, but also for urea market impact; with the improvement of coal supply tight, tight capacity situation will ease, then northwest, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia to supply delivery will cause instantaneous increase of supply in some areas, bad market; coal market, capacity will be caused by risk factors of urea decline later. Tariff adjustment and environmental protection situation will be positive for urea market rumors, 2017 urea tariff will be cancelled and reduce the export cost of urea industry will in a certain extent, while giving the domestic enterprise is to increase the export enterprises will take the confidence, or speculation; environmental protection situation is more and more strict, the impact of this is not short-term increase of urea started or, will remain in the range of 50%-54%, and some enterprises subject to environmental impact is still the reduction of production next year, before plowing or a substantial increase in the supply of the phenomenon does not occur. Each game, good bad, will ultimately determine the long-term trend of urea, present situation, next spring comes, will not necessarily continue to rise.
Expected, the domestic short-term urea market or there will be upside potential, in the long run, the domestic urea industry will remain volatile adjustment state, the Shandong region, the price range or will be 1400-1650 yuan / ton.