RMB exchange rate, has recently become the focus of attention. Exchange rate, on the surface of the currency is the relationship between the price, the final determining factor is the economic fundamentals.
As of 2016 Chinese released the latest economic data, we see is stable and good China economic fundamentals, we feel the hands of RMB confidence". Looking to the future, challenges and uncertainties increase, the RMB trend depends fundamentally on the effectiveness of China's structural reforms.
Steady economic stability
"All foreign exchange problems in the final analysis is a domestic problem, the solution is to do their own thing. From the current point of view, the economy is stable monetary stability." Has long been engaged in the work of foreign exchange management of China's financial forum forty senior researcher Tao Tao, a profound understanding of the exchange rate issues.
So, how about the fundamentals of China's economy? Recent development trend? 20 released in 2016 China's economic data, gave a clear answer.
6.8% - Chinese economic growth in the four quarter of 2016 to the market lifted. 2016 China's economy has not only achieved a 6.7% annual growth rate, and the growth rate in the second quarter was slightly higher than expected and the first three quarters of four.
Reuters commented that in 2016 China's economic growth to achieve the desired target, and the economic fundamentals more stable than a year ago. IMF expects China's economic growth in 2016 is likely to exceed India, the world's highest speed.
From the first quarter of 2010, economic growth reached 11.9% (preliminary accounting data) after the peak of the stage, China's economic growth in the volatility of the slow down. The market was worried about when the end. However, China's economy in 2016 to a "slightly upward curve" to dispel the doubts of the market.
"This year China probability economic bottom is relatively high. As long as the supply side to continue to deepen reform, sustainable investment, energy transfer can bottom, then the economy should be able to successfully bottoms, "13th Five-Year" period China economic growth is expected to establish the platform." Wang Yiming, deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, who has long been engaged in macroeconomic research.
China's economic fundamentals are good, to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate is a solid foundation. Even if there is an external shock, it is only temporary." Tao judgment.
China still holds the comparative advantage of international competition
The most frequent use of international trade and investment. This situation and the international comparative advantage, will also play an important role in the exchange rate.
With the rising cost of production, the comparative advantage of China's international trade has shifted, but did not disappear, but through the transformation and upgrading to high-end." Bai Ming, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said that in recent years, the added value of China's exports increased significantly, foreign trade, gold and competitiveness continues to improve.
In the background of global market weakness, last year China foreign trade is still gradually stabilized, the annual trade surplus of 3 trillion and 350 billion yuan; the export of labor-intensive products still maintain the competitiveness of the equipment manufacturing and high value-added products export growth significantly.
Experts pointed out that although these years of foreign trade is also affected by the China weak environmental impact, but overall in the world market share is still steadily; although China never deliberately pursue trade surplus, but also actively encourage imports, international comparative advantage China economy makes China maintained a trade surplus.
International comparative advantage is also reflected in the use of foreign capital. Since 1993, China has attracted foreign investment in developing countries. The 2016 annual business environment survey released by the US Chamber of Commerce in China shows that more than 68% of its members have plans to expand their investment in china.
Strong economic strong currency
There are still many uncertain factors affecting the RMB exchange rate in the future, and China's economy faces many challenges. But one thing is certain, that is, China's economy will continue to rise in the transformation and upgrading of the road from strong to strong.
"The economy is strong, the currency is strong. Therefore, in the long run, the strength of the RMB is still dependent on the progress of domestic economic reform and structural adjustment." Guan Tao believes that the future of international competition, who firmly promote structural reforms, who can grasp the initiative.
The old and new economic China kinetic energy is speed: in 2016, the national completion of excess iron and steel production capacity to 45 million tons, 2.5 tons of coal production capacity to the annual task; high technology industry increased above scale industrial 4.8 percentage points faster than the national average; every 15 thousand newly registered enterprises......
New initiatives to expand the new momentum continues to launch. State Council recently issued the relevant opinions, clear tasks and measures to accelerate the growth of new energy, stimulate new economic vitality. Zhang Feng, chief engineer of the Ministry of industry, said the continuation of the economy to stabilize the situation for the better, need to cultivate new energy with innovation, repair the traditional kinetic energy.
Looking to the future, the world economy has greatly increased the uncertainty, the major powers of the currency and trade policy variables are not small; China's economic stabilization and recovery trend remains to be consolidated, the difficulty of reform is constantly increasing. To maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, still faces many challenges.
As Wang Chunying, a spokesman for the State Administration of foreign exchange, said, no matter how the external environment changes,