On the occasion of the weekend, a large factory in Shandong urea prices fell 50 yuan / ton, the market people on the urea market bearish people have gradually occupied the majority. The majority of dealers learned that the demand for urea agriculture is weak, such as Xinjiang, Gansu, Shandong most areas such as topdressing in mid June, some even to 7, August; in addition, the local area northeast are also accustomed to using mixed fertilizer or fertilizer instead of disposable urea has changed; southeast of the local planting the structure, instead of fruit, more water soluble fertilizer, sulfur based compound fertilizer, urea use amount is reduced to some extent.
This week from the Shandong market learned during a period of rising in the last wave of urea prices, most worried about the price of urea will be "unprepared" to fall, so did not do too much reserve; compound fertilizer enterprise sales market is still poor, the hands still being delivered to the raw material; part of the provincial agricultural dealers urea supply more. Although affected by environmental protection and planned maintenance and other factors, part of urea enterprises to limit production or discontinued, the overall operating rate is slightly low, about 55.2%, but the combination of urea, the market is still the price once again set foot on the pile up in excess of requirement, down the road. Such as the Xinjiang area of urea prices below 1100 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia area urea issued priced at 1320-1330 yuan / ton, Shanxi area outside the factory or a urea has fallen below 1400 yuan / ton,.
"But The Belt and Road International Cooperation Forum will be held in May 14 to 15 held in Beijing, production and transportation will be the surrounding provinces of fertilizer and chemical enterprises is limited; it is understood as the part of the enterprises of Hebei potash production, liquid ammonia, ammonium chloride and other chemical fertilizer production enterprises are still limited, some urea the enterprise or to speculation rising price; but the author thinks that the urea market still can not escape the weak trend, price of pain, there are three factors:
Factor 1: the overall supply of urea is still increasing. Part of the stop check urea enterprises have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia, Shandong Erdos area of a few large manufacturers of a factory in Zibo, a factory in Sichuan, a factory in Shanxi, a factory in Xinjiang, the market of urea sunrise shipments increased 6-8 million tons, largely led to the imbalance of supply and demand. Factor two: weak demand for terminal agriculture. Learn from the market to the East China (Shandong, Jiangsu) the urea fertilizer season in 7 and August, urea fertilizer in 6 months before and after the northeast, Ningxia area of urea fertilizer should be at the end of May, the main demand for fertilizer late time, urea prices on the current is more of a wait-and-see with tight attitude, local demand is difficult to support the overall market better, so speculation has little effect, the duration is not long. Three factors: industrial demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is poor, on the one hand with the cooling of high nitrogen fertilizer production, sales of tepid demand for urea in most areas has gradually calmed down; on the other hand is also influenced by environmental effects of compound fertilizer enterprises, especially some of the environmental protection inspection standards of small and medium enterprises shut down take the volume leads to a decrease in urea, urea and some increase in business inventories for low-cost regional Fed marketing phenomenon may ensue.
Overall, limited short-term internal environmental inspection and "The Belt and Road" conference, local supply and demand should be urea market nervousness, but the overall market, the market does not have the strong support of urea rebound, shortly after the price should continue to bear the pain.