With the urea market into the traditional agricultural season, more sensitive to the downstream industry just started, the market awareness and participation is increasing and the urea enterprises more mobile price adjustment also has a significant impact on the market trend. For example, last week's rally in urea was the best Jedi response to bearish people". Remember, Monday (May 8th), production enterprises are still markdowns, dealers are still cautious; traders are still compromise, 200 U. S. dollars / ton FOB, the industry bleak unspeakable. How the material on Tuesday (May 9th) the 180 degree turn, a substantial increase in the price of urea enterprises; dealers quickly chase; traders refused to export at a low price. This is how the "dramatic", I am afraid to be a good script. The most contradictory is: Although the industry does not deny speculation, but not willing to be regarded as speculation. And when manufacturers try their best to use supply and demand as well as the actual need to release the hype, it makes people feel guilty. Eventually, the current round of bottoming out urea market due to the lack of continued bottom hunters purchase, local or excessive growth this week has seen callback, market sentiment intensified.
Recently, Xiao Bian with traditional agricultural circulation large companies in exchange, it is not difficult to distinguish it from previous years of operation, change the previous off-season inertia, fat, busy season with wave sales model. As far as possible in maintaining sales and market share of the situation, to lower prices to buy or bargain hunting. In other words, from the spring market started so far, the industry generally know that the downstream market stocks remain low for a long time. The reason is that there is a lot of uncertainty and unpredictable in the price trend of urea. Both the influence of policy, the influence of demand and supply, and the influence of weather have great unexpected probability. Particularly worth considering is the supply and demand level, as the concept of urea capacity surplus rooted in the hearts of the people, prices are difficult to use domestic light season defined. Recently, with the price of urea frequent alternation of ups and downs, agricultural dealers began to operate according to "buy low sell high" way. To the current round of urea prices, for example, the "bargain hunting signal" or "reference" standard, from the mainstream urea enterprise costs, as well as the middle of April the upset price. However, taking into account the price of urea, "a tour" or "two travel" embarrassing situation. But refused to chase high amount of hunters choose agricultural companies, completed a bargain hunting high throw up as soon as possible after the performance at the same time without loss of profits, presumably this operation or will continue.
In fact, the rate of operation of the urea industry is still a hard indicator of price changes. There is no denying that the rebound in the price of urea in May 9th was due to a chain reaction caused by a new round of production cuts and maintenance. At this time, although in late April to early May for overhaul of the enterprises gradually resume production, but the maintenance company 5 months late a few. It is expected that the operation rate of the urea industry will remain low. Only in the market season, supply and demand level, the lower market inventory long-term low position, is the circulation of risk averse conservative operation. The low inventory of urea means that manufacturers have the right to speak pricing, once the local or more market demand started, short period of centralized procurement to the market, leaving a larger range of price change space. And this is precisely the manufacturers and downstream dealers expect the market. In other words, in the low labor rate, supply status is not broken in the market environment, urea supply and demand will remain "tight" in a tight balance.