There is also the last month, 2017 will be more than half, fat city transcripts? From the above data sheet, we can see that in terms of price performance, "good students" only have urea and potassium sulfate, and the others are wolves, especially monoammonium phosphate.
Urea is the best, and ammonium is the bottom
In the Shandong area of small granular urea as an example, the end of May the price is at the beginning of January fell by about 5%, but compared with the same period last year rose by about 25%, compared with the ideal comprehensive performance. The main reason is that lead to loss and environmental factors such as operating rate of the downturn, according to fertilizer network statistics at the end of May the industry operating rate of only 51.5%, far below the safety line, and it has been so long, so to some extent offset the weakening demand and export bad bad. However, the recent agricultural demand is small, and the production enterprises have products (Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Xinjiang and other places have), the port price of urea or urea to return in June 10th or later fell again, the next need to continue and change the operating rate of agricultural urea and export situation.
Hubei area 55% at the end of May the price of powdery ammonium is at the beginning of January fell about 13% over the same period last year fell by about 3%, was the worst. The main reason is that the demand is not strong, although the industry operating rate is not high, according to fertilizer network statistics at the end of May, only 38.6% of exports over the same period, even a slight increase, but the production capacity of over 100% excess demand suffered landslides, price pressure. From now on, an operating rate of ammonium recovery gradually, demand is still general, the price is still downward trend, but the enterprise inventory pressure is not large, the cost of raw material support capacity is still possible, the downside should not be large.
DAP and compound fertilizer are not ideal
Diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer prices are slow down, the performance is not satisfactory, especially the compound fertilizer, because fertilizer is finished after processing, is only the face of the terminal product, its poor performance led directly to other fertilizer for bearing. The grain price downturn, base fertilizer is not active, dealer inventory and slow digestion, enterprises take the goods of poor inventory pressure, so that the expected trend is weak in the short term price of compound fertilizer is still stable in mid June, after a lot of corn fertilizer demand enterprises will enter the parking state, the demand for raw materials will further weaken fertilizer. While inside and outside the demand situation is weak, and supply is not obvious, the latter is expected to further decline in prices.
From the above report can be found as follows: after all just need is weakening "arch-criminal", and because such data are generally required throughout the year after the end of next year or even to completely clear, in the stones, especially the price of agricultural products is still no significant improvement in the situation, the market confidence is very difficult to set up the operating rate is; low, but may not be able to save the fertilizer price, the impact of overcapacity may occasionally dormant, but accumulated to a certain time will occur; if the export market is not ideal, it is difficult to have good performance. In view of the above situation, the author suggested that in 2017 the next 7 months, the industry should be pure and not a lot, and not for the rose.