According to the customs statistics, in May, China DAP exported 510 thousand tons, and in 2017 1-5, DAP exported 1 million 510 thousand tons. The same period last year, the export volume of diammonium phosphate was 1 million 340 thousand tons, compared with the same period of last year, and the export of DAP increased by 12.69%. Recently learned from the market, because the domestic export enterprises is relatively large, and the amount of momentum after individual factory executable by September, said that due to export demand, this year may not participate in the domestic market sales of late autumn, autumn plans to raise the diammonium sales price, large trader for a time part of the North China region have also entered the ranks of the settlement. So whether the price price can be up late diammonium? In my view, the relative degree of possibility is low, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
First of all, the early domestic supply constraints. Although domestic enterprises in May diammonium began to focus on international markets, and even Hubei enterprises is in the June domestic volume is very few, but according to the chemical monitoring network Chinese, the overall volume of Shandong, Mesopotamia, May after the market is not in the minority, and heard the introduction of individual manufacturers settlement price before the end of June, and the pre publicity quotation has some price, so the goods before the end of June arrival, coupled with the early transfer of inventory, the late autumn when officially entered the market, such as when the price increases, the dealer will give priority to the pre consumption goods, this mode of operation will not only affect the overall market price, will also affect the factory the new single transaction, while exports can not completely solve the problem of excess supply of domestic production capacity, then I am afraid of individual enterprises will choose the low price sales.
Secondly, the international market support generally. Companies focus on the outbreak in June exports, the majority of enterprises in Hubei this month, the supply of the domestic supply of diammonium is relatively small, but the recent international price weakness, India intention of CIF price falling to 350 dollars / ton, while the domestic price is also a recent throwaway way down to 340 U.S. dollars / ton, large single low-end fell to $335 / ton; and according to the a large number of orders can see the factory until mid July, then either the quantity or price of DAP the very price to support the strength of co..
Finally, with the fall of the non market market constraints. Recently although compound fertilizer raw material procurement is acceptable, and individual manufacturers also tries to make some of the autumn sales policy, but the feedback from the market was informed that the actual turnover is poor, the late compound fertilizer prices have soared, but compared to the phosphate compound fertilizer, the recognition is lower than the latter, there are still some difficulties of diammonium rose.
In conclusion, although diammonium late prices still some obstacles, but because of continued consumption of exports in the short term, even if the sluggish domestic demand can also relieve the pressure through the domestic production capacity is expected to fall in Hong Kong, diammonium sales price higher than the current level even if the volume is relatively low, price or will be steady.