June in a hurry, when we're feeling the passion of July, but the urea market once again turn to tepid. In the first half of the market hastily ended, the urea industry competition pressure is reduced, but still more intense, in the current industry consolidation critical stage, the second half of the urea market deserves our attention. So without further ado, the small Cui from urea, good market bearish and comprehensive analysis of several aspects of urea market in the second half of a simple prediction, the hope can give you some help in a certain degree.
Good: the first half of the relevant policies promulgated by the state and future development trend, the second half of 2017, the environmental pressure is likely to continue, should continue to restrict the overall supply of urea in a certain extent, is expected in the second half of the urea industry operating rate should continue to float between 50%-70%, but to a great extent, the operating rate is determined by urea the cost of liquid ammonia, amine three and lower prices and the choice of the enterprise, so according to the specific circumstances, operating rate is still beyond the scope of the possible; in addition, because the first half of the occasion of grassroots careful preparation fertilizer attitude once appeared for a time of urea supply, downstream procurement difficulties, local urea market wholesale prices go high, the case also slightly to avoid dealers again along with the pin with the mining operation, or perhaps urea enterprises in the off-season can also have Opportunities to ease inventory pressures.
The bad: agriculture planting structure: basic change has been reduced to a certain extent the overall demand for urea, some enterprises due to competition in the market and offer down could still happen; especially to take half a year 5-6 month of 2017 high price of urea urea in addition to the real estate supply shortage caused by the environmental pressure, Xinjiang area cotton with a large amount of fertilizer, the Inner Mongolia area and pin outward northeast situation is better, and the two were also started due to the pressure of environmental protection at a low level in these aspects also contributed to the price of urea nationwide range higher, while the second half of Xinjiang Mongolia the two agricultural basic has no more demand, two low cost urea outward or bring to the market impact of urea again. In addition, the downstream industry and export prices are still difficult to improve.
Comprehensive analysis: greater environmental pressures will continue expectations will continue to restrict the construction of urea and downstream industrial production needs, on the first half of the urea price trend, environmental protection check effect on the price of urea is still good than bad, and the current real estate industry is still relatively weak, such as power plant desulfurization denitration test is also more strict than Hebei and other developed areas of industrial production will greatly influence the unstable region of the GDP, so although the restriction of environmental inspection, under the demand of half industry also should be improved; although most agriculture demand has ended, but in most areas there is still a small agricultural 7-9 month from time to time, in the premise of low supply, again apparent oversupply is expected relatively weak; and the overall supply of raw coal has been reduced gradually to the North heating demand started, coal prices should hold high Or continue upstream. But at present the majority of urea enterprises no cost pressure, some production enterprises such as urea again resume production will be out of the market, the overall operating rate of urea is likely to rise, if the preliminary estimates of environmental standards, the operating rate may be higher than 65%-70%; and international capacity continues to increase, the low cost of urea restricting China's exports of urea, so the second half of the year the export market is also very difficult to improve.
China is expected to the overall price of urea in the short term should be a steady fluctuation situation, with Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang and other places and transfer outward end demand, the overall price of urea should be more substantial decline, local farmers need to support the local market is expected to slightly urea prices rose again; after 8-11 months have dropped to the agricultural company for winter storage of fertilizer and preparation on the occasion of the inflection point, according to the time of the purchase, preparation of fertilizer amount and duration, urea prices may fall again at the end of the year 11-12 month.