At the end of July, the majority of compound fertilizer enterprises fall orders will have in the country held near the end of the first cycle, autumn fertilizer collection work. Overall, this year's autumn fertilizer market has good steady trend, a collection of compound fertilizer enterprises has reached 50%-70% in previous years, even the local market over 30% completed autumn fertilizer collection, autumn fertilizer collection opening is good, but a good beginning means good end? Can we go all the way down to fat?
First, the positive factors intertwined. The recent frequent fluctuations in the price of raw materials, especially ammonium phosphate prices rise significantly, because the spot supply is tight, part of enterprises in Hubei will offer up, at present 55% powder ammonium mainstream factory price rose to 1850-1900 yuan (ton price, the same below), the actual turnover also rose slightly, the 55% powder ammonium Shandong high-end storage in 1980 acceptance yuan, purchasing of ammonium compound fertilizer enterprises are carrying out everything in good order and well arranged. In addition to potash contract, potassium chloride market is fuzzy, local fried up the atmosphere, is the main trade next month has not yet started the new single sign, not to determine the volume and price of domestic potash, Saline Lake hike 80 yuan, low-cost supply and delivery trucks are hard to find, difficult, are slightly too tight; urea prices fall. But compared with the same period last year, the price still tends to high, currently Shandong rivers area of the mainstream granular urea factory price at 1550-1630 yuan, in addition to start enterprises urea ratio declined slightly. Comprehensive raw materials overall market point of view, the support of raw materials costs is the biggest factor in the recent rise in compound fertilizer.
Second, environmental protection has come, and compound fertilizer enterprises have picked up slowly. 7-8 month is the preparation of compound fertilizer enterprises of raw materials, production of fertilizer in autumn stage, but this year by the national high temperature weather, compound fertilizer enterprises operating rate of equipment is not high, especially in the south area in the daytime temperatures above 40 degrees, equipment can not only select the start in the daytime, night production, so the majority of compound fertilizer enterprises products the inventory has not yet reached sufficient, coupled with the recent environmental protection inspection team in various provinces and cities, and a strict environmental protection examination started, so the short term compound fertilizer enterprises operating rate is only 50%-60%, 8 months late, the fall of fertilizer demand will be started, when the supply will be slightly tight, then the possibility of up the emergence of compound fertilizer there is a price.
However, at the beginning of autumn fat awesome, whether it can be a good way? The price will make late? And analyze it carefully.
The first round of receivables receivables to start, low order more. At present, the majority of compound fertilizer enterprises in the first round of autumn fertilizer collection ended with NPK raw material prices higher, lower payment is positive, this year the majority of compound fertilizer enterprises receivables than in previous years has increased significantly, of course, the majority of enterprises has relatively low price and fall fertilizer larger effort incentives is the main reason to attract downstream enterprises, the most outgoing orders have been routed to the end of August, so even if the latter compound fertilizer offer up slightly, also only left more than a new single transaction price.
Second, the explosion price quote frequent, compound fertilizer unspeakable big rise. Although some companies receiving better, but there are still some enterprises fall fertilizer price is on the high side, poor collection, delivery pressure, even in Shandong a few large fertilizer companies issued explosive goods prices, in order to attract downstream section, overall, compound fertilizer overcapacity still exists, which still needs light compound fertilizer price, so in the short term price of compound fertilizer can hardly be rose, there may be a slight fluctuation.
Last autumn, compound fertilizer fertilizer preparation early start, early main raw materials, the latter also see environmental protection, still wary of "lower prices, the off-season season price, compound fertilizer enterprises also worry about quotation highs, the recent national environmental protection inspection team again in the provinces, whether can continue autumn fertilizer for the better price. We will continue to wait and see.