For a long time have not talked about the export situation Chinese urea ammonium sulfate, urea and ammonium sulfate recent price into the downstream channel, although the next to the two domestic prices of exports may bring the pull is not clear, or even a little, "but rather believe it to be not credible without"! We need to study the industry, or simply look at the small fertilizer nets, small analysis is also excellent!
For example, in 2016 the export of urea is not ideal, only about 8 million 870 thousand tons, but in 2016 7-12 months, the export volume of 3 million 820 thousand tons, more or less support the middle of August 2016 to the end of the domestic urea prices rise. Look at the number of exports in 1-6 months in 2017 - only 2 million 750 thousand tons, compared with 5 million 50 thousand tons in the first half of 2016, a decrease of 48.5%, or a decrease of nearly half! What about urea exports in the second half of 2017? Probably!
First of all, China's export of urea to the grid and India, the United States and other major import countries, the price of the larger differences. On 2017 a few tender half in India, China's urea share very little or even the latest bidding accounted for zero, the number of year-on-year in the first half of China's exports to India by 77% to only 349 thousand tons, which can help digestion not visible in China Hong Kong behoove, urea, urea port return to the domestic market in China is the more common, the latest China small particles Urea Export asking us $222-227 / ton, large granule urea export price 205-210 USD / ton, while the India July 20th tender bid price is only $203.06-208.75 / ton (Dong Xihai shore port, taking into account the different CIF) shipping fee, not really look at the price of exports to India, the United States of New Orleans offshore reference large granular urea 177-183 dollars / tons, is also the main urea importers of low-lying land.
Then, China's urea export destination has changed greatly. The number of year-on-year in the first half of this year exports to South Korea increased by 24.5% to 427 thousand tons, the number of exports to Australia increased from 71 thousand tons to 192 thousand tons, exported to India, Mexico, United States, Malaysia and Indonesia, the number fell by 36% to 77% range, the decline is very obvious, on the one hand shows the country of destination for Chinese at the same time in the urea dependence decreases, between Iran and other Middle East supply with Chinese urea is very competitive, on the other hand, China's urea export price is on the high side, had to turn to South Korea, Australia etc. These small countries, a small number of times an export transaction.
What will happen next? The first half of China's exports of urea to rank in the top five in South Korea, India, Mexico, Australia, the United States in the second half of the demand is worthy of attention, but the United States of India seems to be gone, Burma, Chile, export demand for small North Korea, Malaysia, Djibouti and other home outside of the top five also seems to need more attention. In short, in the second half, if a large amount of urea can be exported, it will need to make greater concessions on the export price of urea.
As for ammonium sulfate, exports have been the focus of attention, in 2016 the first half of the total exports amounted to 2 million 900 thousand tons, awesome! 1-6 in 2017 the total exports of about 2 million 680 thousand tons, an increase of about 550 thousand tons, is awesome! In the first half of 2017, exports of Indonesia, Vietnam, Turkey, Malaysia, Philippines, Brazil and Thailand increased by 14% to 100% over the same period! Although the first half of China's exports of ammonium sulfate FOB in 100-110 dollars / ton hovering between, but the domestic ammonium sulfate factory price rose about 3 months, a week rose 10-30 yuan / ton, exports did not.
What happens next to the ammonium sulfate outlet? The second half is still need to pay attention to the destination country's demand, should at least be able to do a small increase in the past five years of data, the second half of the export amount of ammonium sulfate was higher than that of the first half of the number of the corresponding; ten thousand steps back, domestic caprolactam by-product ammonium sulfate, Shen far Lubao new capacity put into operation the export price competition will intensify, in view of China's total exports accounted for ammonium sulfate, about 60% of total output, exports is also very worthy of attention, especially can do volume and price.