The long-awaited India tender, unanticipated environmental inspection part of the downstream industry has reached as expected, dealers for the winter wheat reserve base fertilizer, urea market ups and downs, August 13th rose to 26, 27, led by Shandong, factory price began to decline, as of last weekend, after the release of new long-awaited mark the purchase of uncertain size granular urea bidding on the night of September 1st India, September 2nd Shandong Hebei urea enterprises to usher in a new round of factory price rise, on the first day or 20-50 yuan / ton, again in September 3rd rose 20 yuan / ton, Anhui urea enterprises have joined the price rise, although the increase is only 10 yuan / ton.
First look at the tender in India. Was originally expected to be 8 months late, because of the international urea prices rose by about 3 weeks, marking a postponed to September 1st, is worried about the rainy season in India may be out of stock, two is the international urea prices rose after a small drop, for China, in China's high-end offshore large granule urea turnover ex factory price rose to $230 / tons, our individual port cargo price reached 1570 yuan / ton, regardless of whether the India from China goods, India can digest a part of Iran and the Middle East urea is certain, ten thousand steps back, India tender in September 8th auction, in the bidding results publicly before, China domestic urea "fry up" is there is nothing wrong with practice! This factor is a rally!
Then see often and often environmental inspection. This round of the Shandong environmental protection inspection period for the August 14th -9 month 14 days, time has passed more than half a month, part of compound fertilizer enterprises and plywood enterprise environmental protection has been achieved, we believe that more or less in the circle of friends to see the "central let you check the environmental protection, who let you shut down factories and other news, also shows that this round of environmental protection check not" across the board". Although the low utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises, but in the production of the last bus concentrated before delivery, we are caught up with urea enterprises, taking Shandong as an example, Linyi goods prices since August 25th 1560 yuan / ton down to 29, 1530 yuan / ton rose again in September 1st to 1530-1540 yuan / ton, 1560 yuan high-end / ton. This factor is objective fact!
Then look at the dealer for winter wheat and a small amount of urea fertilizer reserve time slightly in advance. The original eleven winter wheat planting season on the eve of the ferry had a dealer to take delivery, but after the last two Shandong actual transaction factory just below 1400 yuan / ton for two or three days after the rebound, coupled with a steady rise of coal is still small, urea increased business costs, the price fluctuations have become more frequent, low price is not good grasp; earlier, but some dealers again sit still, well, get more with less, in order to maintain the downstream customers, for urea is more or less take some. This factor is auxiliary!
Finally look at the operating rate of urea industry is still low?? about 55%, compared with the ideal 60-63% and above the industry there are still gaps, urea enterprises downstream industry and agriculture are slightly out of stock of short-term concerns, take the goods and goods, like stocks, the first in the city to continue to do so, after entering the city always think they earn less. Of course, factors of low operating rate, one is Xinjiang urea because of environmental inspection and safety inspection and the operating rate is lower than expected, and before the cold November started or not is still worthy of close attention (whether it will be similar to Inner Mongolia last year two or three large enterprises to stop production for half a year, the two is unknown); production of methanol, ammonia, amine three. The short-term profit is always good in urea, not long-term production, because of the three chemical products is highly competitive, but the capacity to an emergency is good, do have to do! Three, Shandong two or three large temporary construction or production shortage, Shandong four small urea enterprises as a safe haven, extended production time, Shandong this round again took the lead in price increases, it is refreshing is understandable.
In short, Shanxi Inner Mongolia Xinjiang enterprises to order a little more, this round of rising fast, urea or large, may also fall fertilizer market overdraft in advance, 9 months late price fall is also very possible, there may even be ahead of time to India price bidding results are announced, after all, exports our 1-7 month urea decreased by 46.6% over the same period is an indisputable fact, export or difficult to expect.