Recently China has started selling diammonium primary sales, but has not yet entered the season, with the successive replenishment of some of the dealers, the recent arrival at the appropriate price of diammonium increases, it is reported that at this stage the 64% DAP north station price has risen to 2500 yuan / ton, the overall price good approach toward phosphate, but I learned from this week, the recent northeast diammonium market gradually sound, such as the sky in Heilongjiang area 64% diammonium station in advance price 2700 yuan / ton, no guarantee, no interest; 64% Heilongjiang Kailin diammonium station offer 2650 yuan / ton, according to the number of how many money give different degrees of interest as well as other enterprises...... Although the above mentioned part of the business plan of shipment to the northeast, but the arrival time should be after October, and this week in the northeast area of individual factories offer diammonium already introduced part of the industry, uttered some questions: why is this northeastern bid to start so early? Is the price available for the factory at this stage? Below I synthesize a part of big manufacturer's viewpoint is as follows:
Reasons for early bidding in Northeast china:
First, the overall environment of fertilizer run better, enterprise Strike while the iron is hot. This year, affected by the environmental inspection, compound fertilizer production will be affected, thus the overall supply of compound fertilizer in autumn is less, Jan Huojin price, diammonium this fall a good market performance, north station price rise gradually, some enterprises with good momentum at the present stage, ahead of the start of winter storage market sales and even individual enterprises in order to attract customers to play, Liaoning Panjin and other places of the station basically with the current buyout offer in North China market of the 64% phase flat transaction arrival diammonium.
Second, to stabilize the North China market. Recently, the North China grass-roots sales, although already started, but most traders said, take goods slightly slow progress. So when the factory in addition to pre shipment owed to the North China area, there is still more quantity of goods supply, then this a few months to maintain the price of diammonium phosphate or because of excess supply will lead into the price war; in addition as at this stage began to focus towards the Northeast market, then the market of North China diammonium sales pressure will be great after the loss, then north end of autumn sales price of diammonium may maintain at least above current level, so the winter storage space for operation of diammonium pricing should be increased properly.
Can DAP take the goods at this stage?:
Although at this stage, some enterprises buy more attractive prices, but the latter half of the price of diammonium is still a certain uncertainty:
First of all, the North China market sales will determine the early winter storage price positioning. According to common sense projections, in mid September to early October diammonium grassroots or transaction price will lead to price for demand upward, but in mid October after the price or because Paohuo leads to lower prices, the market potential demand continued yet, the trend is slightly confused.
Secondly, the international export prices. Although in recent months China diammonium export volume increased, but the international news said at the end of September before and after a subsequent international demand, prices probably will drop slightly, then exports or will be affected.
Finally, how much is the production capacity of the enterprise?. DAP can maintain stable most of most enterprises this year based on the overall production of diammonium caused by winter storage is the last war near the end of the year, enterprises can continue to the United Front is a limited production, the stage is unknown.
To sum up, this year, the diammonium market better than last year, but if the Northeast dealers purchase still needs some observation, at least until the fall market after a little clear, and then make decisions.