Recently, urea market bad factors appeared around Jincheng urea enterprises gradually resume production, the current continues to increase yield, the overall supply faces increased; downstream industrial production recovery, purchasing enthusiasm is low, compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area for urea up the price dropped to about 1790 yuan / ton; Hebei, ammonia prices fell sharply, since the weekend individual enterprises factory price drop of up to 220 yuan / ton, low turnover factory may be only about 2500 yuan / ton, from the above aspects, the overall price of urea gains slowed, some enterprises have already started to offer stable, mainly whether the tender price situation looks forward to the India bid to bring the market price support, enterprises gradually since the price to the market keen concern, but Xiaobian that although there are negative factors disrupt the market, the short-term price of urea significantly Expectations are still small.

First of all, the international price of urea high, the India bid winning probability of China's urea price. There is news that the tender bid for the middle east coast of India may reach $300 / ton, and the appreciation of the US dollar is about 6.64. The export rate will continue to be favorable for China's export of urea. Preliminary estimates, if calculated according to the current exchange rate and the expected price in China, Yantai and other major ports of the urea FOB price is about 1895 yuan / ton, excluding Hong Kong and miscellaneous freight, Shandong enterprises should be two urea prices reached 1750 yuan / ton, Shandong for the two enterprises 1740-1780 yuan / ton price ex factory strong support.
Secondly, the demand of downstream industries will resume production. Most areas of agricultural procurement is basically stagnant, temporarily downstream industrial procurement is also sluggish, the recent rise in urea prices slightly difficult. But the Beijing conference has ended, although the environmental protection inspection and pressure reduction, but as Shandong, small and medium sized compound fertilizer, plywood and power plant has gradually started to resume production, downstream industrial procurement for rigid demand, should be light trading market to ease the market supply of urea under low to a certain extent.
In addition, the overall supply is still at a low level. China fertilizer network data show that during the Beijing conference of China urea industry operating rate is only about 47%, even Shanxi Jincheng and other places for the two manufacturers of urea production enterprises meeting will resume production, but by the impact of environmental safety inspection pressure reduction and other policy factors (urea load may be reduced by 30%), parts of the operating rate of urea it is difficult to reach the level before the Beijing conference. But before the small series in the article said that winter in some areas prone to fog and haze, perhaps part of urea enterprises will continue to be all kinds of examination pressure and influence the yield, so the overall supply of urea or low and may not be stable.
In summary, the overall supply of urea is an ideal export market, the downstream industry demand is expected to increase, the price of urea should be strong or rise again; and after the current bid price bidding in India is not clear, the downstream demand was flat, and domestic enterprises are faced with urea supply will increase the psychological pressure, downstream customers purchase scruples, so do not rule out the next local urea prices slightly consolidation of the situation. But given the urea parts of international supply tension, strong willingness to sell traders in China, winning a large number of high priced urea greater probability, so the probability of China's domestic urea prices drop in the short term is still very small, and look at the specific circumstances of the marking. Over the long term, coal prices still seems to be the main factors of the price of urea balance.