As prices continue to decline, the fall of the urea market has become more and more obvious last week. Part of the market dropped 20 to $25 (ton price, the same below), since the beginning of the first week of November, the overall market price has dropped 50 to $60.

As prices continue to fall, more and more buyers are considering whether to enter the market at this time. The market is still waiting for India to launch a new urea bid to stop the downward trend, but no one really knows when India will bid again. This uncertainty means that the price is not supported.
At present, the pressure of the Western Hemisphere is the greatest. The supply of urea to the Brazil market dropped to $250 last week because of excessive urea supply. The price of New Orleans port in the United States has fallen again, which is now equivalent to $205 in the Middle East. The FOB price of the Baltic pellet urea was $225, and the offshore price of large particles of urea had also fallen to $230~235.
Egypt is bidding for a new low in December, as traders are reluctant to accept $250 in offshore prices.
There is no obvious bottom line in the market. The oversupply and low production cost mean that the price may be lower. However, it is expected that the demand for the final announcement of the bid will increase sharply in India. Buyers have postponed their purchases in December, and prices have fallen to an attractive level.
It is impossible for the seller's market to come soon. There is a urea backlog in all markets, especially in Iran. Last week, the 3 sets of urea plants in the National Iranian Tanker Company (Pardis) began to invest in commercial production and are expected to produce more than 3000 tons of large particles of urea a day.
The pressure in the Far East is relatively small, and most of the Chinese suppliers have been withdrawing from the export market and maintaining an offshore price of around $270. They are able to evacuate the international market because of strong domestic market prices and higher profits.