On the eve of the Spring Festival, a lot of telephone calls have been received from the small editor. The common problem is how to see the spring market. Can you get the goods? After the small and small colleagues to do some market research, the simple answer: up to 100 is reasonable, but also a great possibility, but the first gas imports of urea, urea production, urea entry light storage market, government policy intervention, spring weather anomalies may have a variable number of.

Here, first look up 100 reasons: first, the agricultural dealers have to take goods, third four, late sixth, winter wheat in Shandong and Henan and other places have a green fertilizer demand, so before the Shandong Hebei part of urea enterprises after Spring Festival holiday seven days in advance orders has tentatively raised the price, since February 11th the factory price rose 30-50 yuan / ton, transportation stagnation, downstream also get the goods, the price rose although not too much significance, but it is to pave the way for the holiday market on the side, worried after up too much, cause the attention of many people, will offer up to now, the Festival the actual price to a higher price.

Second, the industrial demand is rigid demand, as late as fifteen month after the industrial compound fertilizer factory, plywood factory, power plant will resume delivery, in recent years many industrial manufacturers to accept the goods even more cautious, as needed in the festival is the norm, should be able to boost the price of urea rose a.

Third, natural gas, coal less prices, urea utilization rate as in the past downturn (the industry operating rate is only about 46-47%), the temperature is low, the supply is still insufficient, the majority of gas based urea enterprises have said to the Spring Festival in order to resume production, taking into account the resumption of gas supply, to ammonia, ammonia can reach to a urea production the level and so on, taking into account the one to two weeks delivery cycle, taking into account the initial shipment is pre orders, so the whole urea increased the supply situation still need to wait before urea enterprises, large agricultural companies, pre stock pre sufficient reserves of large urea compound fertilizer enterprises will tentatively raise urea price.

Look at some of the factors that can bring the variables in detail.

First of all, gas based urea enterprises production progress has accelerated the trend, in February 11th a Yunnan gas from urea manufacturers have resumed production, February 13th Chongqing, Sichuan, Dachang urea in a small Qinghai, a medium-sized enterprises have urea production, during the Spring Festival, Sichuan three, Henan head of a gas giant urea urea manufacturers will resume production, more or less will ease the supply of urea the pressure, coupled with Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, nearly ten manufacturers if the gas head at the beginning of March smooth production, urea operating rate from the current 46% is expected to rise to about 56%.

Secondly, before a few articles in a simple calculation, Shandong, urea factory in 1900 yuan / ton, especially 1950 yuan / tons, imported urea will increase the number, such as more than 10 days ago a large agricultural company imported 42 thousand tons of urea Oman, February 14th imports of 40 thousand tons of urea in Bahrain, this is really to turn the domestic rather than export.

Again, the total amount of the two chemical fertilizer storage and tendering is up to 13 million 300 thousand tons this year, and the proportion of urea can be accounted for. It can be imagined that the light storage urea goods of these large agricultural enterprises or urea manufacturers will go down to the market a little faster, which will bring down the price of urea in spring.

Then, back to urea rose 100, this should not matter in the urea market, during the mid to late 12 2017 rose 300, but at the end of December when the government interviewed fertilizer market quickly cooling, prices, the price was reduced by more than 100, so the price of urea in spring is relatively easy to rise, but the increase is too large. The government will intervene, such as February 11, 2018, the NDRC interviewed in the middle peasants association of nitrogen etc..

Finally, the industry is most worried about is the abnormal climate, it will break the unusually cold spell, under the situation of the original urea market supply is tight, industrial demand of normal starting, small and medium-sized dealers hands of insufficient supply, large agricultural companies have signed the order arrival speed of urea prices rose 100 or even 200 of the possible situation.