The main event last week is India tender, to February 27th, India has bought about 650 thousand tons of urea, 452 thousand tons from Iran, 200 thousand tons from the Gulf of Arabia.

Iran urea prices slightly higher than expected, FOB price of $250~255 (ton price, the same below), the specific price depends on the cost of the freight and the precise plan of the Arabia Bay, urea FOB price of $260~261.

The Gulf of Arabia urea to sell below the initial offer price of $4~7, there are about two reasons. On the one hand, it shows that some suppliers have no confidence in the further rise in the price of 3~4 months, and they are bearish to the market. Demand in Europe, Brazil and the United States was sluggish last week, which means India is the best choice for selling urea. On the other hand, after the sale of 200 thousand tons of Arabia Bay urea and 450 thousand tons of Iran urea, suppliers will tighten the supply of Asia and the Americas and reduce the competition in Brazil, Southeast Asia and other markets, which is a bullish factor in March and April.

In addition, these purchases only represent India in 2017 postponed demand, new demand instead of the 2018~2019 year of. After all, in 2017, India held the first annual tender in March 24th.

At this time, in addition to push up prices only from the United states. With few European markets active, Brazil is in the low season, and Southeast Asian buyers are still silent. In the United States, the price of products was still strong in the previous week, but a slight decline last week. The drought affected part of the wheat region, and the flood affected the eastern region. As in 2017, it is expected that the weather will have a significant impact on this year's urea purchase model.

Globally, the April will be a supply of urea. China operating rate has rebounded to more than 50%, is expected by the end of March will rise to about 65%. However, it is unlikely that a large amount of Urea Export will occur until the end of China's application season in mid July.

Market supply may result in March prices firmed. In some areas, buyers believe that in April, unless the United States suddenly becomes a spot supply market, the price will continue to rise mildly.