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Urea: will local low price promotions lead to large-scale selling?
Time:2018-03-23   Read:671second  

In recent years urea off-season prices fall season when circumstances have occurred, although large-scale agricultural demand in most of the country will be reflected in succession in April, but due to the current downstream industrial production recovery, agricultural sentiment heavier, urea industry operating rate also increased, the enterprise sales pressure, some companies offer a small rise after urea from the start of the week down again, in the range of 10-50 yuan / ton (only an enterprise in Shandong to function type urea after transient pull up price fell today in Shandong, Sichuan and a few again pull up).

According to Chinese fertilizer network understanding, this week Heilongjiang local market urea grassroots wholesale price is only about 2020-2040 yuan / ton, the price is lower than the price of agricultural means of production from the company of about 2080 yuan / ton, is enough to give Inner Mongolia urea station about 2050-2100 yuan / ton price pressures (Heilongjiang Dachang production factory price low but meaningful); Guangzhou Provincial Station of large amount of urea market, fierce competition in the market, the Guangdong market dealers wholesale prices have since last week, about 2060 yuan / ton in succession is down to only about 2020-2040 yuan / ton; urea enterprises in Xinjiang factory price 1750-1800 yuan / ton, to talk about little space, the current low-end factory turnover of about 1730-1750 yuan / ton, while the downstream agricultural company pre urea goods low-end ex warehouse has been as low as 1680-1720 yuan / ton. Wholesale prices upside down there had been few market insiders, confidence is low, from the current market, urea market slack seems likely to continue in the short term, lower confidence will also be further hit, so the market upside down will therefore develop into large-scale Paohuo? What is the possibility of a vicious competition in the dealer market for the promotion of sales?

According to the story, the region Paohuo behavior is the reserve a large amount of agricultural companies or dealers, the purchase price is lower than the current mainstream transaction price of 50-300 yuan / ton, some more, but because of grassroots farmers agricultural prices higher than in previous years and delayed purchases. Urea prices fall again, dealers believe that such a situation seems to have occurred in previous years and is exactly the same, taking into account the recent years profit distribution of urea increased the difficulty of the current market situation is uncertain, while under storage, capital returns and other pressures, so dare to bet up to the afternoon, to protect the interests of low sales part of urea.

In succession in the promotion, dealer inventory pressure will be further reduced, at the same time the gap will continue to reflect the agricultural area. Heilongjiang Jidong market of some large dealers have said recently, lower purchasing enthusiasm increased significantly, although the temporary turnover is limited, but according to the intention to purchase quantity of downstream customers, the spring market start on the occasion of the probability of occurrence of urea supply is still large, when the urea situation is expected to improve, the price may also be a modest rebound in Xinjiang recently; the operation positions of primary dealers also accelerated the exchange frequency and the upstream agricultural company, intends to use fertilizer demand for cotton and corn, and buy urea.

Xiaobian expected, local bargains should not cause massive sell-off; but in view of the current China's short-term export urea hopeless, downstream industrial production recovery still should according to the further development of environmental protection and inspection, and urea industry operating rate has been restored to a normal level, low in the early spring to start causing the gap has been added, and the logistics in succession, so manufacturers pressure slightly larger and poor mentality caused the recent price cuts. To start on the occasion of a market demand in April due to an insufficient number of dealers urea reserve wholesale prices will rise modestly, but on the premise of stable supply and smooth logistics and other factors should also not last too long; to urea prices continued to rise in the price of the current operating rate is still high and the relative absence of will with the double support work for large scale agriculture.

 

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