Turned into the second half of March, "2+26" city implement special emission limits to urea and its downstream enterprise is quite deep understanding. In March 9th, environmental protection was "overweight", and some urea enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei and Shandong restricted production policies. Although a week for urea exploration rose chance, but 30-50 yuan / ton or more not too shabby, downstream manufacturers game.

Eventually rally round die, urea enterprises more and more overtly or covertly markdowns. In addition, with the 20 day of this month, the recovery of the urea enterprises that are limited by the temporary policy is expected to bring the industry start rate and the increase in total capacity, and the mindset in the industry will be further fermented, and the price of urea will not escape another deep bottom before the release of the spring ploughing demand.

Environmental protection check a degree of relaxation

Industry has been regarded as environmental protection check effect of urea market "double-edged sword", not only cut supply, reduced demand. The demand for urea for agriculture is always following the situation of inventory and inventory control. So the new single volume of most urea enterprises is shrinking, and the price of the main production area at the beginning of this week has reached 50-60 yuan / ton, and the inner plate is a new low after the increase of the rate of urea production.

In fact, was released along with urea production is not only the demand of downstream industry also will be better. From the analysis of the scale of urea recovery from the end of the earlier "gas shortage", the urea rate in the country is expected to return to 57% in late March, and the demand for the downstream industry and agriculture will also be improved.

Spring agricultural demand atrophy

After a few rounds of spring - ploughing agriculture, the expected frustration of raising urea has caused doubts in the industry. After all, the previous "choreographed" agricultural purchase prices can always be interfered with by some measures. As the use of fertilizer approaches in the spring, the operating mode of the downstream dealers is beneficial to the "position war" price increase in the factory, but from the first batch of agricultural fertilizer areas, the traditional fertilizer such as nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and compound fertilizer has suffered the reality of the shrinkage of the amount of fertilizer. Due to the low price of agricultural products in the first quarter, the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain was frustrated, and the cost of investment was also reduced accordingly.

According to this situation, the agricultural dealers maintain low inventory, Kuaijinkuaichu is conductive to the risk to the factory. In other words, no matter the demand of agriculture is shrinking or the new fertilizer is replaced, or the farmers are cutting down the cost of grain growing, the potential of raising price of spring ploughing is not large.

Urea temporarily difficult to participate in foreign trade

Urea foreign trade more than once by the industry concerned, whether export or import, adjustment is fast, but limited opportunities. Most of the importers and exporters only stay on the sidelines. After all, the situation of urea at home and abroad is more variable, and speculation is not easy, and risk is greater than profit.

The conclusion is that the end of the short-term policy limit will bring a new round of capacity release pressure to the urea market, and the downstream sings can further game the price of urea out of the factory, but with the improvement of the industrial demand or the good support for the new urea touch and bottom price, the decline has been controlled. The real problem of the shrinking demand for spring ploughing agriculture has been concerned. There is a lack of enthusiasm for dealers to fill in the warehouse, and on-demand procurement operation is expected to drive the price of urea to fluctuate in a narrow range.