Before there is a saying, this year there are millions of tons of fertilizer market is bullish on the gap of spring, spring fertilizer price trend, a lot of people. But from the current situation, fertilizer prices seem to be rising.

Compared with the high prices of the most fertilizer prices are falling. Before and after the Spring Festival, the price of the mainstream urea plant exceeded 2000 yuan (ton price, the same), at present at 1850~1900 yuan, some places fell more than 200 yuan; before and after the Spring Festival, Heilongjiang 64% diammonium high end buyout is about 3100 yuan, and now the low end to station price is 2900~2920 yuan; the price of one ammonium in March fell 150 yuan at the monthly price, and 55% at present. The price of powdery monoammonium production is more than 2000~2150 yuan; the price of potassium sulphate also falls about 50 yuan. At present, the price of 52% full water soluble powdery potassium sulfate is 2950~3000 yuan, and the actual transaction price in some areas has fallen to 2900 yuan or even lower.

Spring fertilizer price why do not rise up? According to the analysis, there are five main reasons:

Is a pre or large. Last December, the supply of natural gas was particularly tense, and the gas head urea plant stopped in a large area. The price of urea was rapidly increased from 1700 yuan to more than 2000 yuan, and the monthly increase was up to 300 yuan. With the increase of urea prices, other kinds of fertilizer prices have risen, and the price of chemical fertilizers has been extremely cold. Although the price of fertilizer has gone down, it is still the highest price in the past five years.

Two is the price of agricultural products is not high. According to the latest monitoring data issued by the agricultural and rural department, the twelfth week of 2018 (March 19, 2018 to 25) "wholesale price 200 index of agricultural products" dropped 1.17 points compared with the previous week; "the wholesale price 200 index of" vegetable basket "product was 1.34 points lower than the previous week. These two indices are based on 2015, that is to say, the average price of agricultural products is only 6% higher than that in 2015, and the average annual increase is only 2%. The price of agricultural products is not high, farmers' income is low, and the enthusiasm of using fertilizer is affected.

Three fertilizer prices started rising rate. After the two sessions, the factory resumed obviously, and the operation rate increased significantly. According to the survey by the China nitrogen fertilizer industry association in March 27, 2018, the daily output of urea in the country was 154 thousand tons, an increase of 2.3% over the same period, of which, the daily output of coal head enterprises was 118 thousand tons, an increase of 0.8%, and the daily output of the enterprise was 37 thousand tons, an increase of 7.3% from the same period.

Four is the import and export situation changes. In the past, the export volume of chemical fertilizer in China was large, the cost of chemical fertilizer production increased, the competitiveness of the international market decreased, and the export volume decreased significantly. In the first two months of this year, the export of chemical fertilizer in China decreased by 30%, and in February it dropped to 56%. Meanwhile, the import of chemical fertilizer increased. The import volume increased by 4% over the first two months. The change of import and export situation aggravates the competition in the domestic fertilizer market.

Five is a low-cost supply to be digested. Before the fertilizer price rose in December last year, some dealers also had a thin store, when the price was 200~400 yuan lower than the current price, and the profit margin of the distributor was huge. Before these low price goods have been digested, the price of chemical fertilizer is increasing.

Spring fertilizer price decline is not an individual phenomenon, during the last year of spring fertilizer price decline. If the market is not optimistic about the future trend, no matter manufacturers or businesses are shipping, it is easy to see the phenomenon of "congestion" falling.