China imported two batches of 50 thousand tons of small granular urea from the Black Sea and delivered it to the southern port of China at the end of May and June. Since February, this is a new wave of more than 100 thousand tons of imported urea. The price of urea in China really has such a great attraction to the international urea source. Can import urea really bring great impact to China's urea market? Zhong Fei net small car for your small answer:

On the one hand, first look at the price of the imported urea, and then compare with the wholesale price of urea in China, the answer to whether the domestic urea price is attractive is one or two. The price of the imported urea is only close to 250 US dollars / tonnes (South China port CIF). Considering the exchange rate of 6.42, tariff 1%, VAT 10%, port miscellaneous and other intermediate costs, the price of urea is about 1883.2 yuan per ton at the port of the port of Ma Chung / Zhanjiang port, considering the freight and not considering the profit of the middleman. At the same time, the price of the Guangzhou platform is only about 2050 yuan / ton. Knock the blackboard! At present, the mainstream wholesale price of Guangdong and Guangxi urea is 2120-2170 yuan / ton, and the individual high-end reaches 2200 yuan / ton, which is very attractive for imported urea.

Even if the price fell 100 yuan per ton in early July, the profit of the importers of the two batch of urea goods is still at the break even point. Most of the urea industry people are optimistic about the summer fertilizer market and think that as long as the rate of urea starts at about 145 thousand tons of water at present, The price of urea will rise more than 100 yuan / tonne on the occasion of the concentrated start of the multiple summer fertilizer market (on the basis of the current 1960 yuan / ton in the mainstream of Shandong and other places), and the current operation of the urea importers is to take the long term to digest the imported urea before the end of the mid July summer fertilizer market. A good market for the long term.

On the other hand, imported urea will not cause much impact on China's urea market. The impact is, such as the Guangdong, Fujian and other coastal areas, or only a certain distance from the port of the city, and only in these areas with fertilizer concentration, the import urea will slightly relieve the local supply pressure, cold season, the import urea should be quiet waiting for the next wave of market.

In the last 2-3 months of this year, the middle peasants imported urea for the first time and closed their bags to the end of our domestic market. For example, some manufacturers in Jiangsu responded quickly to reduce their market share, but later we realized that the operation cycle of the imported urea was also the fastest one month, and the approval of the imported urea was still available. In the first quarter, the actual import of urea in China was only 47 thousand tons (deducted to be used for re export), and the quantity of imported urea was estimated to be less than 100 thousand tons in the month of 4-5, although the number of imports increased slightly in a month by month, but it was still very small compared to the total amount of about 400-450 million tons per month in domestic urea.

In the long run, our country has more than 2 million tons of new urea production at the end of the year, and the price of imported urea is still difficult to control, that is, it is impossible to determine the price of domestic urea at the time of selling the low price of the imported urea to the Inland of our country. (the U. S. New Orleans urea FOB weekly ratio rose by 20 US dollars per week. Short tons, the Middle East and other urea in the Black Sea are likely to follow, so the import urea is very small compared to the impact of low price urea in Xinjiang in Inner Mongolia, and there is no need to be overprepared in the areas outside the coastal areas.

The import of urea is really not so rough! Imported urea has not delayed the price rise of urea in China since mid April. The price drop in late May is temporarily a price consolidation under the premise that the demand for industrial and agricultural production is not close and the domestic urea start rate is rising. Of course, if the South drought in the south is too serious, the summer fertilizer market or the difficult period, taking too much urea, has a risk, and the intake urea needs to be considered a little.