In the middle of June, the prices of various kinds of fertilizer, such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer, were all rising, especially the urea was outstanding. As of now, the price of the main stream of urea in Shandong area was 1970-2020 yuan (ton price, the same below), influenced by the factors such as agricultural demand and low position, and the price would be stronger in the short term, compared to the raw material. In the summer market, the price of compound fertilizer was more stable, and there was no obvious fluctuation. However, in the last two weeks, the start rate of enterprise began to decline significantly. According to the China fertilizer network, the overall construction rate of the large compound fertilizer enterprises nationwide was near 35% by the end of last week, which was about 10% lower than that in the early June, and it was temporarily in the second quarter. The lowest position since the degree.

First, the market is over, and the demand is reduced. Since the beginning of June, the summer fertilizer market in some parts of China has already entered the stage of sweeping. In the Central Plains, such as Shandong and two rivers, the restocking has reached about 80-90%, and the demand for replenishment in the later period is very weak; in some parts of the south, such as Anhui and two lakes, the duration of the rice fertilizer market continues. Slightly longer, but now has begun to sweep the floor, the downstream space is limited. The market of compound fertilizer has gradually entered a relatively low season, and the delivery of enterprises has slowed down earlier. This summer, the compound fertilizer market is similar to the previous situation, which is light and stable. At the end of the market, most enterprises or some products have a certain inventory of finished products. In order to accelerate the digestion of stock and reduce pressure, some enterprises choose to stop or reduce the load, and the start rate has fallen down.

Second, the environmental protection "look back", the conference pressure. Recently, the first batch of central environmental protection inspectors "looked back" started fully. At present, 6 central environmental protection inspectors are responsible for the "look back" inspectors in Hebei, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and other provinces (autonomous regions).  The inspector will take serious responsibility for the phenomenon of "inadequate rectification" and "surface rectification". The above area will usher in a new round of environmental test. In addition, in the preparation and holding stage of a major meeting in early June, the environmental protection situation in some parts of Shandong is more severe, and the small and medium fertilizer enterprises in Linshu area are basically all closed. Stop, the surrounding Enterprises Limited production seriously, the production is almost completely paralyzed, and the rate of operation is greatly reduced.

Finally, routine maintenance, preparation for autumn market. After the end of the summer fertilizer market in all parts of the country, it will enter the seasonal intermission. It is expected that the autumn market will start in autumn in early July. In the previous stage, some enterprises were short of orders to be sent out, and there were still some remaining stocks. Therefore, a short period of parking inspection would be carried out to prepare for the production of autumn fertilizer. At the same time, the enterprise also plans to reserve the raw material needed for the autumn fertilizer production. The fall fertilizer is mainly high phosphorus type products in autumn, the phosphate fertilizer demand is more, the phosphate fertilizer enterprises start up and the sulfur price is weak, and the price of ammonium is weak in the near future. Therefore, it may not be the best purchase time now, compound fertilizer enterprise Most of them are on the wait-and-see state, and the cautious mood is strong.

In summary, in addition to the routine overhaul of some enterprises to meet the autumn fertilizer production, the low season and environmental pressure factors make the overall start-up rate of the compound fertilizer enterprise fall completely. It is expected that the price fluctuation of the compound Hefei is limited in the short term, and the construction situation in the enterprise may be improved after July.